Water Resources In Zhanghe River Basin Based On Bankruptcy Theory Under Multiple Supply And Demand Scenarios Allocation Study

As socio-economic development and climate change increase,uncertainty about the supply and demand of water resources in the basin increases.Future population and economic changes within the basin will have a direct impact on the water demand of water users,while the amount of water available in the basin will vary depending on the type of hydrological year.Therefore,in order to mitigate water conflicts in basins,it is important to study the equitable allocation of water resources in basins under multiple scenarios of supply and demand.Based on this,this paper analyses the conflict mechanism of water resources in the basin,constructs multiple scenarios of water resources supply and demand in the Zhanghe River basin,then analyses the balance of water supply and demand in the basin in different planning years,and combines bankruptcy theory to calculate the water resources allocation results for water users in the basin under multiple scenarios of supply and demand.Firstly,the population and economic conditions of the Zhanghe River basin from2011 to 2030 were predicted by using the shared socio-economic path method,and then the socio-economic water demand of the basin under the multiple scenarios was calculated by using the water quota method,and the supply and demand balance of the basin under each scenario was analyzed by combining the available water supply in different hydraulic years.On this basis,the four classical bankruptcy criteria of bankruptcy theory are used to calculate the water allocation results for the current,nearterm and long-term planning years in the Zhanghe River basin,and to select the reasonable water allocation results for each scenario by combining the two methods of bankruptcy criteria stability assessment and fallbcak bargaining.Finally,policy recommendations are made based on the causes of conflicts in the Zhanghe River Basin,and research gaps and outlooks are pointed out.The results of this paper are as follows:(1)The current status of research on water resources forecasting,water resources allocation and bankruptcy theory in water resources allocation at home and abroad is summarised,the shortcomings of existing research are analysed,and the combination of multiple scenarios of supply and demand with bankruptcy theory is proposed to obtain fair and reasonable water resources allocation results under multiple scenarios.(2)The shared socio-economic approach was used to construct water demand scenarios for the Zhanghe River basin,combined with relevant water-use quota data to obtain socio-economic water demand results for the basin,and analysed the supplydemand balance of the basin under multiple supply-demand scenarios based on the water supply results for three hydrological year types.The results show that water shortages in the Zhanghe River Basin persist and will become increasingly severe over time,especially in the SSP5 pathway in the exceptionally dry year of 2030,when the water shortage is more than four times the available water supply.(3)Combining the water supply and demand conditions in the three planning level years,the four classical bankruptcy criteria of bankruptcy theory are applied to calculate the fair water allocation results for each water user,and the final allocation plan is selected based on the bankruptcy criteria stability assessment and the fallback bargaining method,and the final results show that the reasonable water allocation results always correspond to the results of the proportional criteria and the adjusted proportional criteria under both methods.(4)Taking into account the causes of water resource conflicts in the Zhanghe River Basin,this paper proposes three policy recommendations: firstly,to give priority to ecological water use;secondly,to improve water conservation efficiency and strictly implement water conservation requirements;thirdly,to fully consider the overall interests of the basin and individual interests...