Estimation Of Future Activity Trends Of Tropical Cyclones In The Northwest Pacific Based On PRECIS Scenario Simulation Results

With the continuous process of socialization,the development of the third industrial revolution,global climate has begun to warmer,and the occurrence of extreme weather in the world has increased significantly.Tropical cyclone is a low-pressure vortex born in tropical and subtropical ocean noodles.It is not only a weather system in summer,but also a dangerous and extreme weather incident that causes strong storms and precipitation.In the global environmental environment,tropical cyclone activities globally are irregular,and abnormalities of movement and generating.However,because there are insufficient research capabilities and mode simulation capabilities for tropical cyclones,previous research cannot match the abnormal characteristics of the current tropical cyclone,and there are large differences.Its good information.In order to simulate and predict tropical cyclone activities more accurately,we need to study what changes may happen in the tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific region in the context of climate change.This research will provide basic research for disaster prevention and mitigation and adapting to climate change in the coast.This article uses the global climate model(ERA-Interim)to analyze data and global climate model to provide side boundary-drive regional climate model(Precis)to analyze its simulation capabilities for the environmental thermal and power factor in the Northwest Pacific Tropical cyclone(TC).The Precis Climate Simulation System’s simulation capabilities for the northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity from1981-2010.After determining that Precis has a certain analog ability,analyzes and analyzes in two sets of data scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The changes in tropical cyclones and the changes in the tropical cyclone in my country in the future.Comparing the model simulation results with the live data of the Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),the result shows that the Precis regional climate model can better portray the large-scale circular field and high-level environment of the Northwest Pacific Tropical Circus;The tropical cyclone simulated by Precis has a significant correlation with the number of path frequency year and the number of path frequency and the live data.The high-value0 areas of the simulated tropical cyclone generation frequency are mainly concentrated in the northern part of the South China Sea and the east of the Philippines.The frequency frequency of the simulated tropical cyclone roads is mainly concentrated in110 °-120 ° E,15 °-25 ° N,and concentrated in the northeast of the South China Sea in China.The frequency frequency of high-value tropical cyclone roads in the Philippines waters is slightly west,and the number of tropical cyclones generated by Precis simulation in the entire South China Sea has increased,and the simulated tropical cyclone strength is also weak.The cause of these errors may be due to insufficient pattern resolution and some systemic errors.In the case of simulation of the future northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone,compared with the simulation of the historical period,the average strength and number of the TC in my country in the two RCP scenes will have different programs...