Simulation And Prediction Of Water Resources-water Environment-water Ecology Collaborative Carrying Capacity In Ulan Suhai Lake And Hulun Lake And Their Surrounding Basins

With the development of social economy,the increase of population and the acceleration of urbanization process,the gap of water supply and demand is increasing,the pollution of water environment is becoming more serious,and the degradation of water ecological system is becoming an important restriction factor for the construction of green development ecological civilization.Therefore,in order to maximize the bearing benefits of lake basins in cold and arid regionsto and play an important role in restoring ecology and conserving water in the lake basins of the Inner Mongolia plateau,this paper analyzes the interaction and synergistic effects among water resources,water environment and water ecology with the help of system theory and synergy theory.The evaluation system of 17 related indexes of water resources,water environment and water ecology(including the glacial period)was established by AHP method,and the system dynamics model of the collaborative carrying capacity of water resources,water environment and water ecology of Ulan Suhai Lake and Hulun Lake and their surrounding drainage areas.According to the actual development needs of the two places,a total of five simulation schemes(status continuation mode,development continuation mode,conservation continuation mode,comprehensive mode I,and comprehensive mode II)are designed for regulation and allocation.The main results are as follows:(1)In this paper,hierarchical analysis method and entropy value method are used to calculate the comprehensive weight of the sub-system.Secondly,the structural equation and structural model are established to calculate the weight of each index in each subsystem.Finally,the bearing capacity calculation model is constructed to calculate the collaborative bearing capacity.The results show that: The water resources carrying capacity(0.603～0.689),(0.550～0.580)of Ulan Suhai Lake and Hulun Lake and their surrounding drainage areas from 2014 to 2021,The water environmental carrying capacity(0.608～0.622)and(0.588～0.656)and the water ecological carrying capacity(0.610～0.788)and(0.564～0.621)showed a slow rising trend on the whole,but did not reach a good state,and the carrying state and carrying level were not good.The water environment carrying capacity of Hulun Lake and its surrounding drainage areas is greater than that of Ulan Suhai Lake and its surrounding drainage areas.The water resource carrying capacity and water ecological carrying capacity of Ulan Suhai Lake and its surrounding drainage areas are both greater than that of Hulun Lake and its surrounding drainage areas.The carrying level and carrying state are average.(2)The current water resource carrying capacity,water environmental carrying capacity,water ecological carrying capacity and collaborative carrying capacity of Ulan Suhai Lake and Hulun Lake and their surrounding drainage areas are 0.597,0.515,0.610,0.620,0.751,0.570,0.675,0.552,respectively,and the carrying state and grade are average.After taking control measures,the relative ratio of the carrying capacity of water resources in Ulan Suhai Lake and Hulun Lake and their surrounding drainage areas under four scenarios of the status continuation mode,development continuation mode,conservation continuation mode,comprehensive mode I and comprehensive mode II will be as follows:-14.8%,(10)29.90%,(10)28.27% and(10)23.30%,-5.11%,(10)10.15%,(10)8.95% and(10)10.13%;Water environment bearing capacity,respectively,‐16.92%,(10)25.85%,(10)28.76% and(10)21.75%,-27.46%,(10)15.26%,(10)12.40% and(10)15.35%.Water ecological carrying capacity in the development continuation mode and conservation continuation mode-11.7%,+18.6% respectively,-10.763%,(10)18.410%.(3)The collaborative carrying capacity of water resources,water environment and water ecological subsystem can be expressed comprehensively.The carrying capacity of Ulan Suhai Lake and Hulun Lake and their surrounding drainage areas is greater than 0.8in 2028,2032,2031 and 2034 respectively under the conservation continuation mode and comprehensive mode I.The bearing capacity status changes from normal to good elasticity and the carrying capacity level becomes better.Compared with the status continuation mode,the carrying capacity of the development continuation mode will be reduced by 9.15% and 7.86%,while that of the comprehensive mode I will be increased by 14.53% and 18.67%.Through the simulation of different scenario schemes,comprehensive mode I is more conducive to the utilization of water resources,the protection of water ecology and the anti-pollution of water environment than the other four scenario schemes,and the allocation optimization is carried out for this scheme.(4)Under the status continuation mode,the collaborative carrying capacity of Ulan Suhai Lake and its surrounding drainage areasis greater than that of Hulun Lake and its surrounding drainage areas,maintaining a general level.Among the factors affecting the collaborative carrying capacity of Ulan Suhai Lake and its surrounding drainage,the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation accounted for 7.49%,the intensity index of agricultural pollutants accounted for 4.09%,and the biodiversity index accounted for 14.57%.The factors affecting the carrying capacity of Hulun Lake and its surrounding drainage are as follows: the rate of ecological water consumption accounts for 9.77%,the intensity of wastewater discharge accounts for 4.88%,and the biodiversity index accounts for 22.9%.It is found that biodiversity index is the common water ecological impact index of carrying capacity.Secondly,the main factors affecting Ulan Suhai Lake its drainage are agricultural indicators,while the main factors affecting Hulun Lake and its grainage are ecological environment and sewage discharge degree.