| As an important component of ecological protection and high-quality development strategy in the Yellow River Basin,the lower Yellow River floodplain is not only an important link connecting Henan and Shandong,two major agricultural provinces,but also a typical area of rapid land use changes that integrates socio-economic and ecological effects.For a long time,the beach area has been both a flood discharge,flood discharge,and sediment settling area,as well as a necessary land for the production and living of the people in the beach area;Moreover,tidal flats often face the threat of floods,with huge flood control pressure,inefficient land use,and prominent poverty issues.Under the new situation,the contradiction between high-quality development and flood control security in the Yellow River tidal flats has put forward new requirements for the governance of downstream tidal flats.Therefore,establishing a long-term and highly reliable Land Use and Land Cover Change(LUCC)dataset for the lower Yellow River floodplain,reproducing its historical trajectory,and grasping its actual pattern is a fundamental work of great significance for scientific research on the lower Yellow River floodplain and related issues.It can not only provide historical experience for future regional ecological environment protection and sustainable socio-economic development,but also provide reference for historical experience,It can also provide important regional cases for the study of the coupling process,mechanism,and measurement of the natural human system in the Yellow River Basin.This paper selects 36 Landsat5 TM remote sensing images from 1985 to 2010 and 8 GF-1 WFV remote sensing images from 2015 to 2020,based on the interpretation method of random forest,uses confusion matrix to verify the accuracy,and establishes a LUCC dataset of the lower Yellow River beach area for eight periods every five years from 1985 to 2020,with a spatial resolution of 30m;The overall accuracy of the 8 data periods is above 90%,and the Kappa coefficient is higher than 0.85;On this basis,using the methods of land use change amplitude,comprehensive index of land use degree,trajectory analysis of land use change,and intensity analysis,the quantitative structure characteristics,historical evolution trajectory,and stability of land type mutual transformation of LUCC in the lower Yellow River floodplain are analyzed;Finally,the typical case areas of Yuanyang Beach and Changyuan Beach,which have undergone significant land use changes over the past 35 years under different development models in the wandering river section of Henan,were selected.Combining the grey prediction model GM(1,1)and the future land use change scenario simulation model Geo SOS-FLUS,the simulation accuracy of the2020 model was verified under driving factors and policy constraints,and the number and spatial prediction of LUCC in the 2025 case area were conducted.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The analysis of changes in quantity structure shows that:Cultivated land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is the most important type of land use,accounting for over 65%of the total area.It is distributed on the beach land between the main channel of the Yellow River and the main embankments on both sides,showing a trend of"first increasing and then suppressing",increasing from 3122.24km~2 in1985 to 3666.2km~2 in 2000,and then decreasing to 3135.48km~2 in 2020.(2)The water is the second largest type of land use,with significant fluctuations in the area affected by the interruption of the Yellow River from 1985 to 2000.After the completion and operation of the Xiaolangdi Water Control Project in2001,the water area showed a slight growth trend,increasing from 492.74km~2 in 2005 to 640.68km~2 in2020(3)The overall situation of construction land shows a fluctuating increase,from 189.61km~2 in1985 to 360.91km~2 in 2020.(4)The proportion of forest,grassland,and unused land area is the smallest.(5)From the comprehensive index of land use degree,it can be seen that the overall land use development in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is maintained at a moderate level.Due to the limitations of natural conditions and the need for ecological protection,the difficulty of land use development is high.(2)The analysis of the change trajectory shows that:(1)In terms of transfer categories,the areas where land use types in the study area changed from 1985 to 2020 are concentrated in the wandering reaches of Henan Province affected by the Yellow River oscillation and the Yellow River estuary area in Dongying City,Shandong Province.(2)In terms of transfer frequency,the number of cultivated land to water to cultivated land grids converted twice is the highest,with a conversion area of approximately147.22km~2,followed by cultivated land to construction land converted once,with a conversion area of approximately 131.19km~2.(3)The analysis of land use change intensity shows that:(1)The transformation process of unused land to water in the beach area of Henan Province presents a stable and inclined system transformation mode,and the transformation of unused land to construction land,construction land to water,and construction land to unused land is a stable and avoidable system transformation mode.(2)The conversion process of cultivated land to construction land,forest and grassland to unused land,water to unused land,and unused land to water in the beach area of Shandong Province presents a stable and inclined system conversion mode.The conversion process of cultivated land to water,cultivated land to unused land,construction land to water,water to farmland,and unused land to construction land is a stable and avoidable system conversion mode.(4)By comparing the simulation results of Yuanyang and Changyuan tidal flats in 2020 with the actual remote sensing interpretation results,the accuracy of the model was verified.The results showed that the Kappa coefficients were 0.75 and 0.82,respectively,indicating high simulation accuracy.This indicates that the selection of driving factors is reasonable and the model is reliable.On this basis,predict the land use change pattern of the two tidal flats in 2025.The results indicate that in the future,cultivated land and construction land will still be the main types of land use;Under the constraints of natural factors and the guidance of policy planning,the number of cultivated land in the Yuanyang Beach area remains basically unchanged,while the cultivated land in the Changyuan Beach area has slightly increased;During this period,the construction land in the Liangtan District lost its arable land and was affected by the relocation of some villages,resulting in a suppressed expansion trend and a decreasing total area;Compared with the Changyuan Beach area,the water in Yuanyang Beach area is more significantly affected by the wandering of the Yellow River. |
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