Analysis Of The Transmission Characteristics Of Four Infectious Diseases That Children Are Susceptible To In My Countr

With the rapid development of economic globalization,it is more and more difficult to prevent and cure respiratory infectious diseases,and it has also become a major health issue that must be addressed globally.Among the 40 statutory reported infectious diseases in China,the incidence of childhood infectious diseases infecting through respiratory tract infections has been several times higher in recent years than in the past.Conducting an intensive study on these high-incidence childhood infectious diseases is urgent.Therefore,this paper takes the pertussis,scarlet fever,rubella and mumps as the research objects to study the transmission characteristics of the four childhood infectious diseases,explore the transmission rates and seasonality change patterns of these four infectious diseases;Analyze the regularity between the periodic characteristics of the number of cases and the change pattern of the transmission rate,and provides theoretical support for the prevention and control of the four infectious diseases.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Analyze the periodicity of the incidence of infectious diseases based on wavelet analysis.Apply the wavelet analysis method to analyze the periodic characteristics and geographical distribution characteristics of the incidence of four infectious diseases in the whole country and every province,municipalities directly under the central government,and autonomous region respectively,and summarize and compare the periodic patterns and similarities and differences of the incidence of the four infectious diseases in the areas mentioned above;(2)Analyze the transmission characteristics of four infectious diseases based on the TSIR Model.In order to analyze the relationship between the monthly transmission rates of these four childhood infectious diseases over time,According to the reported incidence of four infectious diseases across the whole country and 24 sampled provinces,establish the TSIR(Time Series Susceptible Infected Recovered)model for each of them(Increased effective immunity rate in the model);use the parameters from the Markov Monte Carlo method and the posterior distribution samples in the Markov chain were generated by Gibbs sampling.Analyze the seasonal patterns of the transmission rates of these four infectious diseases and explore the factors that may lead to periodic changes in the incidence rates;(3)Design targeted control methods according to the seasonal patterns of the transmission rates of four infectious diseases in the country and sampled provinces,and analyze how a certain percentage reduction in infection rates in key months will affect the future incidence of these four infectious diseases.The study results show that: the incidence of four infectious diseases presents obvious periodicity characteristics in the country and most provinces,and each one has its own characteristics;The transmission rates of the four infectious diseases have seasonal changes.The lowest transmission rates occurred from July to August.The highest transmission rates of scarlet fever,rubella,and mump are from February to March;The transmission rate is influenced seasonally by school holidays and the Spring Festival period;Having or not having immunization implementation does not influence the seasonal pattern of the transmission rate;The seasonality of transmission rate is related to the types of pathogens;Even if the periodic characteristics of the incidence of different infectious diseases are different,the dynamic pattern of the infection rate is similar;For the same disease,the changing pattern of infection rate does not differ because of the periodicity of the incidence in different provinces and it is similar to the national change pattern.The transmission rates of the four infectious diseases are characterized by seasonal changes,so it is more effective to consider seasonality when implementing prevention and control measures to reduce the incidence of diseases.