SD Study On The Relationship Between Efficiency And Carbon Emissions In Chinese Manufacturing Global Supply Chain

With the rapid development of the global economy and the continuous growth of the population,the global carbon emissions are growing rapidly,and the increasingly serious environmental problems have an important impact on the sustainable development of the country and society.To this end,the Chinese government has proposed a two-stage target for carbon emission reduction in 2020.As a basic industry of a country and an important part of modern economy,manufacturing industry’s position in the global supply chain directly represents a country’s position in the international division of labor.The acceleration of globalization may also lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions,while bringing about greater efficiency in the manufacturing global supply chain.Therefore,how to improve the efficiency of the global supply chain of Chinese manufacturing industry and reduce its carbon emission to the greatest extent is of great significance.Based on the global supply chain efficiency and low-carbon supply chain theories,this thesis firstly divides the complex global supply chain efficiency and carbon emission system of manufacturing industry into three subsystems: economy and trade,energy and environment,determines the causal relationship between variables in each subsystem,and establishes the model causal relationship diagram.Secondly,on the basis of causality analysis,the system dynamics model of global supply chain efficiency and carbon emission of Chinese manufacturing industry was constructed using Vensim PLE software based on world Input-output(WIOD)database using qualitative and quantitative methods.Finally,the relationship between global supply chain efficiency and carbon emissions of Chinese manufacturing industry was analyzed and discussed.The 2010-2030 cycle was used as a scenario simulation,and the effects under different scenarios were compared and analyzed.The results of system dynamics simulation show that with the passing of time,the participation index and status index of the global supply chain of the Chinese manufacturing industry increase year by year,indicating that the efficiency of the global supply chain of the Chinese manufacturing industry continues to improve,but the carbon emissions of the global supply chain of the Chinese manufacturing industry increase year by year.The simulation results show that when foreign direct investment of Chinese manufacturing industry increases,the efficiency of Chinese manufacturing global supply chain increases and the carbon emission decreases.When the traditional energy structure of the global supply chain of Chinese manufacturing industry changes,its efficiency and carbon emission also change.And strengthening environmental governance of Chinese manufacturing global supply chain will make Chinese manufacturing global supply chain more efficient and reduce carbon emission.Therefore,appropriate measures are needed to improve the efficiency of our manufacturing global supply chain and reduce carbon emissions.