Empirical Study On The Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission Trading Price

In recent years,frequent extreme weather events and severe damage to the ecological environment have made it an undisputable fact for the world to strengthen its response to climate change.The pilot construction of carbon trading in China has been carried out for nearly ten years,and the supporting system has been constantly improved,laying a good foundation for the smooth development of the national carbon trading market.Carbon pricing is a very important link in the construction of carbon market.The inaccurate pricing will directly affect the market activity and the effect of emission reduction.The national carbon market involves a wide range of areas,and some experience of the pilot can not be copied.At the beginning of the national carbon market,it is urgent to study the influencing factors of carbon price and find out how to achieve a more efficient carbon pricing.Firstly,this thesis combs the background of the construction of carbon trading market and the development status of carbon trading market all over the world,introduces the current allocation mode of carbon quota and carbon pricing mode,and then analyzes various factors affecting carbon trading price on the basis of summarizing previous studies,and launches the relevant theoretical analysis of carbon emission right trading price.After qualitative analysis of the impact of the setting of the performance period,the issuance of carbon quota and the number of trading subjects on the carbon trading price,then principal component analysis is used to select the Shanghai Composite Index,electricity generation,coal price,crude oil price and euro exchange rate among many potential influencing factors.In addition,five carbon trading pilot markets in Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangdong and Hubei were taken as the explained variables to construct the VAR model and quantitatively analyze the impact of different influencing factors on the pilot carbon market based on impulse response analysis and variance decomposition results.From the perspective of qualitative analysis,the arrival of the performance period makes the carbon trading market,the phenomenon of the focus on the performance and carbon trading prices rise,the carbon quotas issued by the elastic impact carbon trading price,quotas issued too much will lead to low carbon trading price,paid too little will lead to price increases,the number of transactions in the market main body also can give the carbon market activity.Through quantitative analysis,it is found that the price of the pilot carbon market is most influenced by its own historical price,followed by the price of coal,which indirectly indicates that the current price of the carbon market in China cannot reflect the real supply and demand relationship of carbon quota,and the development of the carbon trading market is not market-oriented and the market is not mature.However,the SSE index,electricity generation,oil price and euro exchange rate have different impacts on carbon trading prices in different regions,and there are great regional differences.Among them,Shanghai Stock Index has a greater impact on Guangdong and Shanghai,electricity generation index has a greater impact on Hubei market,energy prices have a smaller impact on shenzhen carbon market,carbon prices in other markets have a greater impact on energy prices,and the exchange rate of euro has a greater impact on Shanghai and Hubei markets.Secondly,nonlinear B-P test is carried out on the pilot carbon trading price,and it is found that there is a phenomenon of centralized implementation in the carbon trading market,and the setting of the implementation period and time has an important impact on the carbon trading price.Through the above research,this thesis tries to analyze the influence of various influencing factors on carbon trading price,so as to explore relevant institutional construction and policy suggestions for the development of carbon trading market.The innovation of this thesis lies in that,on the one hand,principal component analysis is applied to the screening of influencing factors of carbon trading price,and finally,four aspects and five specific influencing factors are selected for empirical research.On the other hand,in the analysis of influencing factors,a new research perspective is selected.Firstly,qualitative analysis is carried out on influencing factors of carbon trading price,and then empirical research is carried out on specific influencing factors with the help of EViews tool.Quantitative analysis of each influencing factor is carried out according to impulse response analysis and variance decomposition results.In addition,nonlinear B-P test is carried out on the trading prices of five pilot carbon markets to find the structural breakpoint of the trading prices of the pilot carbon markets,and the impact of the implementation period and time setting on the trading prices of the pilot carbon markets from a new perspective is innovatively analyzed.