Carbon Emission Growth Mechanism And Trend Prediction In Chongqing Based On “Three Life Space??

Carbon emission is closely related to human production and life.Analyzing and studying carbon emission is the basis for China to achieve carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.The analysis of the development and evolution of carbon emissions and the scientific and reasonable prediction of carbon emissions are helpful to provide important basis and direction for carbon emission reduction.This paper takes Chongqing as an example to study the carbon emission in Chongqing,in order to provide some reference for the carbon emission reduction work in Chongqing.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)First of all introduces the related concepts of carbon emissions,such as carbon source,carbon sequestration,sustainable development,carbon economy,etc.The research methods,STIRPAT model and scenario analysis model are introduced.Then the carbon emission evolution of Chongqing from 2000 to 2019 was analyzed.Using the IPCC calculation method,the total carbon emissions of Chongqing from 2000 to 2019 were calculated.The total carbon emissions increased from 37 million tons in 2000 to 123 million tons in 2019,with an average annual growth rate of 6.48%.The development trend changed from a rapid increase to a steady decline,which can be divided into two stages,with an average annual growth rate of 6.48%.From the analysis of various carbon sources,industrial land accounted for the largest proportion of carbon emissions mainly from production space,followed by respiration of various animals,and main animal gut accounted for the smallest proportion of carbon emissions.In terms of living space,traffic and population accounted for the highest proportion,specifically 73.58% and 10.54%;Then,the change of per capita carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in Chongqing from 2000 to 2019 was analyzed.(2)The STRIPAT model is used to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions.The selection of impact factors is based on considering the current economic development situation of Chongqing and combining with existing relevant studies.Finally,population,human GDP,and industrial structure of urbanization water are selected.STRIPAT model shows that the carbon emission of Chongqing will occur 5.69%,0.20%,0.51% and 1.23%for each 1% change in population,per capita GDP,urbanization level and industrial structure level.It can be seen from the results that population is the most influential factor on Chongqing’s carbon emission,followed by industrial structure.Due to the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions in 2020,carbon emissions in 20202 decreased by 303 million tons compared to 2019;The growth rate of carbon emissions changed from 2% in2019 to-2% in 2020.(3)Forecast the peak time and carbon emissions under different scenarios by scenario analysis.The results of scenario prediction show that the base scenario and the extensive development scenario will reach the carbon peak in 2030,but the carbon emission is 1.12 times that of the base scenario.Industrial structure optimization scenario and low-carbon green scenario will reach the carbon peak in 2025,with carbon emissions of 139 million tons and 130 million tons.Therefore,in order to reduce carbon emissions and achieve carbon peak as soon as possible,Chongqing should take industrial structure adjustment and resource interest rate increase as the main breakthrough point to carry out carbon reduction and carbon reduction actions.(4)Put forward carbon emission reduction measures of "three-life space".Based on the above analysis,putting forward specific carbon emission reduction directions and measures for each space of "three-life space".For the production space,carbon emission reduction measures are mainly proposed for industry,agriculture and energy sources,involving industrial technology,industrial structure and energy structure.For the living space,mainly from the population,urbanization,transportation and other aspects of planning suggestions;For ecological space,the carbon sequestration capacity of ecological space is improved mainly from green space layout,tree species collocation and other aspects.