ESG-based New Energy Vehicle Industry Credit Risk Study

Due to the increasingly serious environmental problems,the third global energy revolution is in the ascendant,and domestic dual carbon target arises at the historic moment.As an important application scenario of the third energy revolution,new energy vehicles have significant carbon reduction benefits.As an emerging industry,factors such as technology,market,and environmental regulations can all affect the credit risk of new energy vehicle enterprises.Therefore,the traditional credit risk assessment system based on financial indicators cannot comprehensively measure the credit risk of the new energy vehicle industry.ESG is an evaluation standard that focuses on the three dimensions of corporate environment,social responsibility,and governance.Therefore,this article optimizes the traditional evaluation system based on ESG governance,selects models with higher accuracy through comparison of different models,and more accurately measures the credit risk of the new energy vehicle industry,filling the gap in previous research on credit risk in the new energy vehicle industry.This article first sorts out the development history and current situation of the new energy vehicle industry,and on this basis analyzes the reasons for credit risks in the industry;Secondly,the main business of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2020 to 2021 was related to new energy vehicle vehicles,core components,and charging piles listed companies.The credit risk of the t-period sample was studied based on data from the previous year(t-1)period.Firstly,the indicator system was divided into financial indicator system and evaluation system integrated with ESG elements to analyze and verify the effectiveness of ESG elements;Secondly,divide the experimental samples into a training group and a testing group,with the training group used for empirical analysis and the testing group used for model testing;Based on the indicator system incorporating ESG elements,credit risk analysis is conducted by R Studio to use the full variable logistic model,stepwise logistic regression model,and Lasso logistic model;Third,compare the prediction accuracy of training set and test set and conduct robustness test,carry out effectiveness test and comparative analysis,obtain a more accurate measurement model and a more concise evaluation system,and analyze the impact of various evaluation indicators on the credit risk of the new energy vehicle industry.The credit risk assessment results show that the Lasso logistic model has higher prediction accuracy compared to the other two models and is more suitable for measuring credit risk in the new energy vehicle industry;From the perspective of influencing factors,net capital profit margin,total asset turnover,interest coverage ratio,asset liability ratio,corporate carbon emission reduction potential,investment in energy conservation and environmental protection funds,product innovation and research and development,establishment of ESG strategic management,and equity balance have a significant impact on the credit risk of the new energy vehicle industry.And the following policy implications are drawn:(1)Energy vehicle enterprises actively innovate and stimulate endogenous motivation.(2)New energy vehicle companies should consciously strengthen their risk resistance capabilities.(3)Integrating ESG strategy into enterprise development strategy.(4)The government should strengthen monitoring of credit risks in the new energy vehicle industry.