Study Of The Influencing Factors And Decoupling Status Of Transportation Sector’s CO₂ Emission In China’s Provincial Regions

With the steady developing of China’s economy and accelerating industrialization and urbanization,China’s transportation sector has entered a rapidly developing period.The transportation sector is an economically key sector in China which is also one of the major sources of CO₂ emissions.Considering that China will remain in the process of industrialization and urbanization for a long time,the task of carbon emission reduction in the transportation sector will be very difficult.In addition,due to China’s vast territory,there are obvious differences between regions in terms of geographical location,economic strength,population size,transportation structure and scale,resulting in the development of the transportation and CO₂ emissions varying from region to region.Therefore,while ensuring the rapid development of the transportation sector,it has become the focus of research in the field of low-carbon development in the transportation sector to explore the influencing factors of CO₂ emissions,clarify the relationship between development and CO₂ emissions,and realize the decoupling of the transportation sector.Therefore,this study takes 30 provinces in China as the target,and the top-down approach provided by the IPCC is used to calculate CO₂ emissions from the transportation by region for 2005-2020.On this basis,an integrated methodological framework including spatial autocorrelation,temporal LMDI model,spatial LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model is constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics,driving factors and decoupling status of CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector in each province.The results of the study show that:（1）From 2005 to 2019,CO₂ from China’s transportation sector gradually increases,reaching 753,786,800 tons in 2019,which represents an increase of 1.10 times compared to 2005.CO₂ from the transportation sector declines in 2020 due to covid-19.Most provinces have a similar trend of CO₂emissions from the transportation sector.In terms of spatial distribution,the overall carbon emission of China’s transportation sector shows a spatial difference of"high east and low west".（2）There is an obvious correct space relationship and regional aggregation of carbon emissions in China’s transportation sector,and this spatial clustering effect has been increasing during the study period.The high-high aggregation area is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal region of China,while the low-low aggregation area is mainly concentrated in the northwestern region of China.（3）Although there are spatial differences in the drivers of CO₂ emissions across provinces,the level of economic development and population size remain the main factors contributing to CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector,while energy intensity is an important factor inhibiting CO₂ emissions.（4）From 2005 to 2020,China’s transportation sector shows five decoupling states:expansion negative decoupling,expansion connection,weak decoupling,strong decoupling and recession decoupling.Before 2010,the transportation sector expands roughly,and the decoupling status is dominated by expansion negative decoupling and expansion connected status.After2010,most provinces enter the decoupling development stage,gradually showing the decoupling weak or the strong decoupling state.In 2020,there are 24 provinces in decoupling status,with a decoupling ratio of 80%.Among these provinces,the percentage of strong decoupling reaches 87.5%.（5）The level of economic development is the main factor inhibiting decoupling in the transportation sector of each province.Energy intensity is shown to inhibit decoupling in provinces with poor decoupling status,while it is shown to promote decoupling in provinces with better decoupling status,therefore,energy intensity is the key to whether the decoupling of carbon emissions in transportation sector can be achieved in each province.Reducing carbon emissions from transportation activities by reducing energy intensity and improving energy use efficiently can significantly contribute to decoupling the transportation sector.Finally,according to the results of the above study,some policy recommendations are proposed to help regional governments precisely formulate targeted CO₂ emission reduction policies for the transportation sector according to the actual situation of local transportation sector development and CO₂ emissions,to promote green and sustainable development of the transportation sector,and to provide reference for decoupling CO₂emissions from the transportation sector.