Case Study On Value Evaluation Of Lz Photovoltaic Power Generation Enterprises Considering Carbon Emission Right

Under the restrictions of the Kyoto Protocol,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and other relevant provisions,China has put forward the goal of "2030 carbon peak,2060 carbon neutral".With the establishment of the national carbon emission right trading market,carbon emission right trading and carbon emission reduction have become the focus of attention of enterprises,and enterprises have gradually realized the value of carbon emission right.The power industry is the key industry of carbon emission.In addition to the high emission of thermal power generation enterprises,there are also "zero emission" of power generation by new energy enterprises such as wind power generation,photovoltaic power generation and nuclear power generation.In recent years,the state has issued a series of policies to favor new energy enterprises.More and more photovoltaic power generation enterprises are put into operation,and the transfer and merger of photovoltaic power generation enterprises are also more frequent.Therefore,this puts forward higher requirements on how to scientifically and fairly evaluate the value of photovoltaic power generation enterprises.Based on the above,this paper takes the photovoltaic power generation enterprise LZ Company as a case,first of all,the research status of the value evaluation of photovoltaic power generation enterprises,the research status of the value evaluation of carbon emission right and the application research status of the real option method in the value evaluation of photovoltaic power generation enterprises are briefly reviewed;After that,based on the analysis of the financial situation of the case company,as well as the factors influencing the value of the photovoltaic power generation enterprise and the option characteristics,it is believed that there are explicit and potential profitability.After analyzing the evaluation background and income method evaluation process,it is believed that it did not consider the volatility of market electricity price and ignored the potential option value brought about by environmental benefits.For the issue of not considering the volatility of market electricity price,this article uses Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the fluctuations of market electricity price;For the issue of how to calculate the potential option value brought by environmental benefits,this paper uses the real option method to measure the benefits that can be brought to enterprises by developing CCER(China Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction)projects for carbon emission right trading.In the process of calculating the value of carbon emission right,Matlab software is used to predict the future carbon price using the cubic exponential smoothing simulation method,and the CCER project methodology is introduced to calculate the project carbon emission reduction.Finally,the improved evaluation method and parameter confirmation process are used to evaluate the value of the case.By comparing and analyzing the evaluation results before and after the improvement,it is believed that the improved evaluation method is scientific and reasonable.This method takes into account the volatility of the market electricity price and the potential option value of photovoltaic power generation enterprises,making the evaluation results closer to the real value of photovoltaic power generation enterprises,providing a certain reference for investors to carry out investment,financing and mergers,and enriching the value evaluation methods of photovoltaic power generation enterprises.