| In September 2021,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the "Opinions on Completely and Accurately Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization".Subsequently,various national policies were successively issued,and the "1+N" policy system for dual carbon was accelerated to form.In this context,it is crucial to formulate scientific and reasonable policies and standardize their implementation,from central departments to provinces,cities,and counties.Shanxi Province,as an important comprehensive energy base and "pacesetter in the energy revolution" in China,faces multiple pressures such as the pressing time to achieve the "dual carbon" goal and the intensified transformation of its own economic energy structure.First,the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions are large,and the pressure to reduce emissions is enormous.Secondly,the overall progress of energy transformation is slow.Thirdly,as a national energy base,Shanxi Province undertakes the important task of ensuring the supply of coal nationwide.Shanxi Province has signed coal supply guarantee agreements with multiple provinces.Fourth,there has always been a conflict of water resources in the process of energy production and consumption.Shanxi Province is one of the regions with the greatest difficulty in achieving the carbon neutrality goal.Issues such as how to achieve the carbon neutrality goal on the basis of considering short-term energy supply guarantee and long-term energy transformation,how to balance water resources and rational energy utilization in the process of deep transformation,and how to reasonably deploy renewable resources in space to support the optimal path of carbon neutrality need to be explored.Starting from the perspective of low carbon and water conservation,this article uses complex energy system coupling optimization theories and models to improve the evaluation method of energy transformation,explore the relationship between water resource utilization,carbon dioxide emissions reduction,and energy transformation,enrich the theory of energy transformation in coal resource rich regions,expand the perspective of energy transformation research,and help enrich the statistical basis of energy transformation in Shanxi Province from the perspective of data measurement,Provide solutions for balancing the rational utilization of water resources and energy and achieving sustainable development during the deep transformation process in Shanxi Province,and explore emission reduction experiences and transformation models applicable to other resource based regions in the country.The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)Shanxi can achieve cost minimization and meet the "dual carbon" and water saving goals through the path of "clean and efficient utilization of coal during the period 2020-2030,utilization of low-carbon energy such as natural gas during the period 2030-2040,large-scale deployment of renewable energy installations and CCUS technology during the period 2040-2060.".(2)Energy conservation conflicts with the "dual carbon" goal and water conservation goal.Due to the demand for coal conservation during the period 2020 to 2030,coal mining consumes up to 346 million tons of water,and coal washing uses up to 254 million tons of water.This has increased the water consumption in the energy system by about 300 million tons,accounting for about one-third of the existing industrial water consumption.(3)The emission constraint scenario promotes the peak time,the target time for halving the peak value,and the reduction of the peak value with the strengthening of target constraints.The peak time is advanced by about five years,and the peak value decreases by about 5%.(4)Water resource constraints are mainly reflected in the impact on upstream coal mining and power generation structures,and promote the application of water-saving cooling methods.Water resource constraints have led to a certain reduction in the production and use of coal chemical products with large water demand,such as coal washing,coal to gas,and coal to oil.(5)Stronger target constraints mean higher costs,which are reflected in the rise in fixed operating and maintenance costs as well as investment costs.The total cost of the planned peak scenario(P30)is about 1.79 times that of the natural peak scenario,while the cost of the rapid peak scenario(P25)is further increased,which is about 1.86 times that of the natural peak scenario.Based on the above conclusions,this article proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)In the transformation and development of traditional energy sources such as coal and coal-fired power,under the premise of ensuring energy security,scientifically plan and reasonably control the scale of coal-fired power;Water cooling is adopted for new coal-fired power units,and conditional and valuable air cooling units are encouraged to upgrade to water cooling;Deeply tap potential,improve standards,bring into play the combined carbon reduction effect of clean and efficient utilization of coal and energy transformation,and release the role of clean and efficient utilization of coal as a cost buffer and energy security stabilizer in energy transformation;In the third decade of this century,we will vigorously carry out water-saving actions in coal mining and washing industries,and continue to carry out water-saving actions in coal chemical industry;Maintain relatively stable water prices and prudently use water pricing tools to regulate industrial production capacity.(2)In terms of the transformation and development of clean energy such as coalbed methane,we should strengthen the extraction of coalbed methane,improve the direct discharge standard of coalbed methane,and accelerate the development and research of low concentration gas utilization technology;Develop CCER products for low concentration gas utilization,and guide enterprises to participate in low concentration gas utilization projects in an orderly manner.(3)In the transformation and development of green energy such as wind energy and solar energy,explore the collaborative development model of coal mining subsidence area governance and photovoltaic power generation;For centralized solar and wind power generation,it is necessary to accelerate the layout of high-power energy storage facilities with low cost and high stability;Pumped storage power stations explore multiple sources of water to reduce evaporation and alleviate water resource conflicts;Distributed utilization,exploring a green hydrogen manufacturing model based on urban distributed photovoltaic power generation-application side;Turning waste into treasure,exploring a green transportation city model that discards wind and light resources;Cultivate and develop a professional and productive service industry for the maintenance of new energy units,and reduce the cost of new energy operation and maintenance. |
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