Research On The Carbon Budget Based On The Perspective Of Energy Carbon Emissions And Vegetation Carbon Absorption

In the face of the serious climate problem,the international community has reached a broad consensus: we must provide extensive technical support to limit carbon emissions,and formulate carbon neutral schedule to promote the rapid realization of carbon neutrality in all countries and regions.As a responsible country,China made a commitment to the world at the 75 th session of the UN General Assembly,it would strive to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In this context,how to evaluate the change characteristics of energy carbon emissions(ECE)and vegetation carbon absorption(VCA)by scientific methods is particularly important.Based on provincial energy consumption statistics,nighttime light data and population data,this study realized spatial simulation of energy carbon emissions and analyzed the change characteristics of ECE and VCA combined with the net primary productivity(NPP)of vegetation.Besides,the relationship between energy carbon emissions,vegetation carbon absorption and economic development was also analyzed at different regional scales.The article drew the following conclusions:(1)From 2000 to 2019,China’s total energy carbon emissions increased continuously,but the growth rate decreased significantly.The total carbon emissions increased from 4.34 billion tons in 2000 to 14.43 billion tons in 2019,while the annual growth rate of carbon emission decreased from 15.9% during 2000-2010 to3.1% during 2010-2019.The VCA capacity had been increasing year by year.In 2019,it absorbed 1.56 billion tons more carbon dioxide than in 2000 with an increase of16.1%.(2)The regions with no carbon emissions were widely distributed,but these areas were mainly in the northwest,southwest and northeast regions.The low carbon emissions regions were mainly in the vast small and medium-sized urban,while the high carbon emissions areas were mainly in North China,central China,eastern coastal,and near the provincial capitals and urban agglomerations in the west.The VCA capacity in southern China was generally stronger than that in northern China,and the VCA capacity of Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,and Hainan were the strongest.From 2000 to 2019,ECE were mainly concentrated in 104°E-123°E and23°N-42°N,while VCA was mainly concentrated in 100°E-122°E and north of 21°N.The distribution of ECE was affected by the layout of energy-chemical industry cities and high-density population cities,while the distribution of VCA was affected by geographical factors such as terrain,altitude,and latitude.(3)Through the identification of the increasing and decreasing regions of ECE and VCA,it was found that the continuous rise area of ECE accounted for 0.5% of the study area,the area of fluctuating rise accounted for 6.7% of the study area.These regions were mainly provincial capitals and towns in Shanxi,Hebei,Henan,Shandong,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta.The area of continuous decline of VCA accounted for 0.2% of the study area,the area of fluctuating decline accounted for 49.6% of the study area.These regions were mainly distributed in the western and southeastern.The increase of VCA was mainly distributed in the areas where ecological management projects were implemented.(4)The eastern China accounted for 42% of ECE and 17% of VCA with 11.4%of land,while the western region accounted for 26% of ECE and 55% of VCA with66.6% of land,which indicated that there were significant differences in the characteristics of carbon budget between the eastern China and the western region.From 2000 to 2019,the carbon pressure index(CPI)of the study area increased year by year,and its expansion direction was to the northwest direction starting from Beijing,Tianjin,and Shanghai.And the carbon efficiency index(CEI)of the study area also increased year by year,showing a pattern of high values in the southeast and low values in the northwest at both provincial and municipal scales.Overall,in the past the growth rate of ECE slowed down,and the VCA capacity improved.In the process of promoting the realization of the “two-carbon” strategic goal,it is necessary to recognize the different resource endowments and innate advantages of different regions,and provide financial,policy and technical support to key regions.In addition,we need to grasp the actual roles of different regions in carbon neutrality and economic development,and formulate different goals and paths to achieve them.