Carbon Emissions Prediction Based On The Grey Model With New Information Priority Accumulation

In view of the serious impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the earth’s environment,carbon peak and carbon neutrality have become the buzzwords of sustainable development in the world.General Secretary Xi Jinping reported in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: To achieve the goal of "double carbon" is a broad and profound economic and social systemic change.Scientific carbon emission prediction has guiding significance for realizing the goal of "double carbon".In order to explore the future carbon emissions and carbon peak time of Chinese provinces,this thesis improved the grey prediction model to make it suitable for the long-term prediction of regional carbon emissions data.The carbon peak time of the region is further inferred,which provides scientific data basis for the formulation of carbon emission policies.The research contents of this thesis mainly include:(1)Based on the limitations of the traditional grey prediction model,a novel grey prediction model which can predict the limit value of growth data is proposed.The new model introduces Verhulst differential equation and Gompertz differential equation into the traditional grey prediction model,which change the structure of the model and make the predicted result more consistent with the natural law.At the same time,the new model uses the new information priority accumulation method to preprocess the original sequence.This method not only reduces the randomness of the original sequence,but also assigns different cumulative weights to the old and new data respectively,making the predicted results more scientific and reasonable.Then,by analyzing and proving the properties of the two new models,the theoretical feasibility of the models is verified.Finally,the advantages of the new model in forecasting accuracy are verified by model comparison cases.(2)The applicability of the two new models to carbon emission prediction is compared through the carbon emission prediction cases of BRICS countries.Based on the comparison results of the prediction accuracy and the case analysis of the carbon emission prediction of BRICS countries,the new information priority cumulation grey Gompertz model is used to predict the point and interval carbon emission of some provinces in China.According to the predicted results,eight provinces in China will not achieve the carbon peak before 2030,and China will achieve the carbon peak in 2032.According to the predicted results of provincial carbon emission under different scenarios,China should implement more stringent carbon emission control policies to achieve carbon peak before 2030.