Research On Technological Forecasting Of Intelligent Transportation System Based On Patent Analysis

Intelligent transportation system(ITS)is a kind of system that applies advanced science and technology such as computer,Internet of things,electronic control,sensor,image recognition,big data analysis,cloud computing and AI to vehicle design,traffic control and transportation service management,so as to enhance the connection between vehicles,traffic facilities and users,and ensure travel safety,improve travel efficiency,improve traffic environment and save energy.ITS is a new industry that conforms to the times,and its technical scope covers a wide range.The construction of ITS in China started later than that in overseas advanced areas.Although it has also developed for more than 20 years and made some progress in big cities such as Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou,there is still a large gap from the development level of developed countries.Technology forecasting methods can help the state and enterprises master the technology development trend of a certain industry,so as to formulate the corresponding development strategic plan,and timely make a strategic layout in the key technology fields with development potential in the future.It is the core technical means to probe the future science and technology development trend,key fields and technology trend.So it is necessary for China’s ITS technical forecast,in order to grasp the future technological development of ITS in our country,this breakthrough the bottleneck of the current technology development for China,promote scientific and technological innovation ability,thus in a strong strategic position in the world competition,has the extremely important practical significance.At present,technology forecasting models can only forecast the trend and characteristics of a certain field in the industry technology innovation,but cannot systematically forecast the overall technology development of the industry.Patent literature is an important information carrier of technological innovation.Through the classification and research of patent literature,it can help countries and enterprises understand the future technological development trend of the industry.It is the core input of technology prediction.By comprehensively applying a variety of patent analysis methods,this paper constructs a technology prediction model from the three dimensions of industry technology development direction,level and potential to predict the maturity and future trend of industry technology development.Then,the current patent information of ITS is substituted into the technology forecasting model for empirical analysis,and patent measurement algorithm and the technology life cycle theory are used to judge the level and life cycle stage of technology development in China’s ITS,and forecast the key direction and hot fields of technology development in the industry in the future.Finally,according to the conclusion of technology forecasting,this paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of China’s ITS,and guides China’s ITS to carry out technological innovation activities in a planned way.