Research On The Credit Risk Evaluation Of Supply Chain Finance In China’s Automobile Industry

With the rapid development of China’s automobile industry,its supply chain has become more complex.Due to the wide gap between different types of enterprises in the automobile industry,automobile manufacturers,as core enterprises,have strong credit sales power to their upstream and downstream enterprises,which makes the industry become an industry with high accounts receivable and small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry are also facing greater capital pressure.Supply chain finance can alleviate the capital gap of upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises,but it does not change the essence of poor credit qualification of small and medium-sized enterprises.At the same time,under this business model,the risk is easier to hide.Therefore,the research on the credit risk assessment of the supply chain finance department of the automobile industry will help to promote the healthy and stable development of the industry.At present,the market scale,employees and market concentration of China’s auto supply chain financial business still have a large development space.In the future,the service scope,service mode and participants of automobile supply chain financial business will also change significantly,which will have an important impact on the automobile industry.Auto supply chain finance is divided into three modes:accounts receivable financing mode,financing warehouse financing mode and confirmation warehouse financing mode.After analyzing the credit risk of each model,we find that the credit risk factors of the business mainly include financing enterprises,core enterprises,macroeconomic environment and so on.Therefore,we selected 28 indicators from these aspects and preliminarily constructed the financial credit risk evaluation index system of China’s automobile supply chain.Then,61 Listed Small and medium-sized enterprises and their corresponding core enterprises are selected as sample enterprises from the small and medium-sized board.Ten independent comprehensive indicators are extracted by principal component analysis,forming the final credit risk evaluation index system of the business.Finally,taking these 10 comprehensive indicators as independent variables and the compliance rate of financing enterprises as dependent variables for logistic regression analysis,an automobile supply chain financial credit risk assessment model is constructed.After testing,the accuracy of the model is as high as 93.8%.At the same time,according to the results of logistic regression,it is concluded that there is a positive correlation between the compliance rate of financing enterprises and their repayment ability.At present,the upstream and downstream financing enterprises are in a state of rapid expansion,which are facing high capital demand,and the automobile manufacturers in the core position in the current automobile industry have serious capital occupation and profit erosion of upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises.Based on the above research,we provide relevant suggestions for financing enterprises,core enterprises,commercial banks and government departments.Among them,financing enterprises should improve the information disclosure system and improve their innovation and profitability.Core enterprises should strengthen the cooperative relationship with upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises and strengthen the supervision of upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises.Commercial banks should improve the comprehensive access management of relevant credit granting subjects,improve the business operation process and standardize the key points of all links of business.Finally,relevant government departments should also speed up the establishment of social credit system and improve relevant laws and regulations.