Research On Load Forecasting And Operation Optimization Of Integrated Energy System

Nowadays,the energy problem is becoming more and more serious.For this reason,the country vigorously promotes the development of renewable energy,and the research direction of the energy system has become a hot issue in scientific research.The integrated energy system has also become the best choice for most of today’s building energy supply systems.It not only improves the utilization of primary energy on the basis of meeting the needs of users,but also realizes the cascade utilization of energy and improves the economics of system operation..However,in the course of its operation,there are also many influencing factors,such as:equipment planning,operation strategy,load forecasting,etc.,which can affect the reliability and stability of the system power supply to a certain extent.In this context,this paper takes a comprehensive energy system combining renewable energy,energy storage devices and traditional cogeneration systems as the research object,and studies the optimal operation strategy of integrated energy systems,and most of the current operations.The strategy is planned by assuming that the precise load is known over a period of time.In order to solve the problem of unknown load in the actual application,the load of the integrated energy system is firstly predicted by the load,and the predicted short-term load is used to optimize the system.Run the strategy and verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Firstly,the research status of load forecasting and optimal operation of integrated energy system is analyzed.Several methods of traditional load forecasting are listed,and the operating characteristics and mathematical models of system power supply,heating and cooling equipment are given.The model of randomness and output characteristics of wind energy and solar energy is analyzed,and the charge and discharge model of the battery is established according to the characteristics of the power storage device.(2)Secondly,in order to solve the problem of unknown load in the actual situation,the outer-derived moving average model is used.The parameters are identified by a common least squares method-two-stage recursive least squares algorithm to predict the cold,hot and electric loads in the future time interval,and the temperature is used as the auxiliary variable of the exogenous variable using the dew point temperature.Pushing the least squares method helps to reduce the complexity of space and time.Through case studies,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are proved.(3)Finally,through the predicted payload data,as the base of the integrated energy system optimization operation strategy,through the establishment of comprehensive performance indicators(including energy-saving indicators,environmental indicators and economic indicators)as the overall evaluation of the system Compared with the traditional energy system,the traditional energy system uses a heat-fixing and heat-fixing operation strategy to propose a new operation strategy,which avoids the shortage of system functions and energy waste,and improves the reliability and stability of the system operation.