Research On The Mechanism Of Credit Bond Default And Its Effect

As the Chinese government vigorously promotes the policy of building a multi-level capital market and increasing the proportion of direct financing,the bond market has achieved leapfrog development,and the types of bonds have become increasingly rich and diversified,both in scale and stock,becoming the world’s second largest bond market after the United States.At the same time,bond default events are frequent.As of December 5,2021,a total of 140 bonds have materially defaulted this year,and the default amount reached148.984 billion yuan.With the liberalization of the qualifications of bond issuers,some weakly qualified entities have begun to issue bonds.The rapid expansion of bond increment and stock,coupled with macroeconomic downturn,increased supervision,external credit contraction,financial supply-side structural reforms and other external factors,the risks of some entities with higher liquidity risks and financial risks were punctured,and default events occurred frequently.Bond defaults show a normalization trend,which makes it particularly important to explore a market-based and legalized bond default disposal mechanism.In this context,this thesis first defines the relevant theories and concepts,then introduces the main bond default disposal mechanisms in China and their applicability,and discusses some common problems existing in the current disposal mechanisms.Then,taking the "17 Huachang 01" bond replacement case as the research object,it first introduces the basic situation of the issuing company,and then introduces the process and results of the bond replacement in detail.In the case analysis part,it first analyzes where the default risk comes from from the macro and micro perspectives,and then starts from the advantages and disadvantages of bond replacement,combining internal and external reasons to deeply analyze the reasons for Huachangda to choose this disposal method.In the research part of the disposal effect,the impact of the disposal on the short-term and long-term market reflections is firstly analyzed by the event study method,the default risk changes before and after the replacement are analyzed by the Z-score model,and the changes in operating performance before and after the replacement are explained by financial analysis..The conclusions drawn from this thesis are as follows: bond replacement is a good disposal strategy that can adapt to the normalization of bond defaults.The administrative force is less involved in the replacement process,and creditors can weigh their own interests and freely choose whether to accept the replacement.It is a market-oriented bond default.disposal mechanism.From the perspective of disposal effect,bond replacement has an excellent performance in alleviating the short-term liquidity dilemma of enterprises,and can reduce the company’s default risk in the short term,but bond replacement itself cannot fundamentally change the operating conditions of enterprises,and needs to be combined with follow-up A series of measures can make enterprises fundamentally on the right track.