| In the field of power grid expansion,reporting and installation and large user access,the analysis and prediction of load characteristics of large users are often inaccurate due to inaccurate judgment of users’ actual needs,more reliance on work experience by reporting and installation staff,and the disconnection between distribution network planning and municipal planning,resulting in the coexistence of light load and heavy load lines.This greatly affects the economy of power grid investment.This phenomenon is particularly obvious in the load represented by residential real estate,which is in the load development period for a long time.Here we need to carry out strong and effective power grid planning and give a reasonable and scientific investment distribution scheme for power grid construction.As an important part of power grid planning,power grid demand forecasting is the basis of power grid planning.The accuracy of power grid investment decision is based on accurate power grid demand prediction.However,at this stage,power grid demand forecasting generally adopts trend analysis method,regression analysis method,output value unit consumption method,load density method and so on.These methods have their advantages in medium and long-term planning,but for short-term load planning especially for large real estate users,today’s power grid demand forecasting has its limitations.He needs us to refine the load demand forecasting of large real estate users,but the current demand forecasting methods such as method unable to meet the requirements,so we urgently need to optimize the load demand forecasting model.Through the optimized load forecasting results,the optimal investment distribution scheme of power grid construction is found out,and finally the relevant suggestions of power grid construction are given.Taking Nanchang as an example,this paper analyzes the economic and social development and the load development of power grid users in this area through the literature research method,forecasts the medium and long-term overall demand load of the power grid in this area by using the output value unit consumption method and trend analysis method,obtains the predicted value of power consumption of three major industries and per capita domestic power consumption from 2020 to 2025,and draws the power consumption growth curve of Nanchang.The comparison between the two shows that: the industrial development tends to be mature,the development and change of the load of the primary industry is stable in the region;Per capita disposable income has increased,and residential power consumption has increased rapidly.Therefore,based on the overall demand load forecast,the next refined demand forecast for urban residents,real estate,commerce and other users.This paper optimizes the load demand forecasting model,uses the matrix analysis method,introduces the concept of plot model matrix,and lists the plot model matrix according to the municipal planning.It is assumed that the decision-making of personnel on the selection of regional plots is as follows: A.residents decide whether to stay in the area,which is affected by and only by the external conditions of the regional plots,such as surrounding school districts,medical treatment,commercial entities,transportation and other factors;b.The attraction of the plot to residents of different ages.According to the plot model matrix and decision-making conditions,the load demand forecasting model under the decision-making of personnel on regional plot selection is established.This method can effectively combine the demand forecast of large users with municipal planning,and more truly simulate the situation that a building starts from new construction,users gradually move in,the load gradually rises,the occupancy rate of end users reaches 100%,and the load reaches the load in the saturation period.In order to achieve the purpose of dynamic and refined demand forecasting for real estate users.Next,according to the refined demand forecast results,the best investment distribution scheme of the real estate power grid is given.In this paper,the inventory model method is introduced to solve the problem of power grid investment allocation for the first time.Referring to the relevant concepts of inventory model,the load capacity is compared with the inventory,the load growth rate is compared with the demand rate,and the purchase cycle is selected as year to calculate how much load capacity should be added each year to achieve the most economical investment cost.Combined with an example,the optimal power grid investment allocation and construction scheme is given.Finally,in view of the rapid development and change of real estate and other loads,the existing medium and long-term demand load forecasting methods will lead to large prediction results,resulting in excessive investment and waste of power grid investment and construction schemes.The research on power grid demand forecasting model and investment decision optimization provided in this paper improves the power grid planning method and alleviates this phenomenon to a certain extent.Especially for whether a universal method can be provided in real work. |
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