Research On The Risk Early Warning System Of Chinese Enterprises’ Cross-border Mergers And Acquisitions

The role of cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&A)has become increasingly prominent as China’s "inbound" and "outbound" strategies are being further promoted.Chinese companies have been using cross-border M&A to expand their operations and acquire technological assets to achieve rapid growth.However,the choice of the target,the source of funds,the payment method and the changes in the integration and operation environment all bring uncertainty to cross-border M&A.At the same time,the growing sophistication and strength of the economic system and capital markets have led to a diversification of financial instruments and the emergence of cross-border M&A approaches that rely on high leverage.The number and value of cross-border M&A transactions in China reached a peak in 2016 and have gradually stabilized in recent years,with many companies adopting various payment methods for M&A and scrambling to enter the cross-border M&A boom.Therefore,it becomes especially important for companies to study the risks of crossborder leveraged M&A and to evaluate and control them.In this paper,HNA Technology’s M&A of Ingram Micro International is selected as an example for analysis.Firstly,we take the background and significance of the study as the starting point,and determine the ideas and methods of this thesis based on the contents of domestic and foreign studies;secondly,we introduce the current situation of cross-border M&A in China and the main contents of cross-border M&A risks,analyze the transmission mechanism between each risk,and provide theoretical support for the subsequent development of the thesis;then we use fuzzy hierarchy analysis to construct the risk early warning system of cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises and apply the early warning The early warning system was applied to the case of HNA Technology’s M&A of Ingram Micro for backtesting,and the risk indicators of HNA Technology’s M&A of Ingram Micro were identified through expert interviews and summarized with domestic and foreign research,and the AHP method was used to obtain the index weights and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results combined with the fuzzy comprehensive scoring of experts.The government should set up an information system for cross-border M&A and improve the supervision and service mechanism of cross-border M&A.The enterprises should establish the right motivation for M&A,fully investigate the target enterprises,build a reasonable debt structure and pay close attention to the post-investment management in order to reduce the possibility of risk and improve the success rate of M&A.