Study On Freight Flow Distribution Of The Northern Sea Route Considering Environmental Cost And Trade Potential

As global warming continues to accelerate the melting of Arctic sea ice and shrinking ice cover,the Northern Sea Route has become seasonally navigable.At the same time,increasing shipping activity in the Arctic is also having an impact on the fragile Arctic environment.As the shortest maritime transport route connecting Northeast Asia and Europe,the opening of the Northern Sea Route will bring new opportunities for Asia-Europe economic and trade cooperation and change the future shipping pattern.In order to make rational use of the Arctic route and provide reference for port and shipping enterprises to carry out container transportation in the Northern Sea Route,the economy of the Northern Sea Route and the traditional shipping route are compared on the basis of consideration of shipping cost and environmental cost.Then the trade variation between Asia and Europe is analyzed by using global trade analysis project model.Finally,a container cargo flow distribution model is constructed to maximize the annual profit of shipping companies,and solved by improved particle swarm optimization algorithm.The main conclusions are as follows.The opening of the Northern Sea Route will change the global shipping pattern,and part of the cargo flow between Asian and European countries will be diverted to the Northern Sea Route.In order to protect the fragile and sensitive environment of the Arctic,it is necessary to actively improve the propulsion technology of LNG-fueled ships or rationally choose other clean alternative fuels for navigation in the Northern Sea Route.The research focus and innovative achievements of this thesis are as follows:（1）The shipping economy analysis model considering shipping costs and environmental costs was established to analyze the shipping economy of container ships through two routes between Asia and Europe.The results show that the Northern Sea Route has a cost advantage over traditional route.When the price of pollutant emissions in the Arctic increases by 125%from the current level,the Northern Sea Route is no longer economical.The use of LNG fuel for sailing on the Northern Sea Route keeps cost down.However,as the price of CO₂ rises,the impact of greenhouse gases emitted by LNG on the Arctic environment is gradually emerging.When the price of CO₂is 500$/ton,the Northern Sea Route becomes uneconomical.（2）The change of Asia-Europe trade after the opening of the Northeast Arctic route was analyzed by using the global trade analysis project model.The results show that the mining industry is most affected,and the trade volume of oil and gas resources increases.The opening of the Northern Sea Route will strengthen the trade links between Northeast Asia and the countries around the Arctic,such as Russia,Norway and Sweden.（3）A container cargo flow distribution model was established,and the model was solved by introducing the relocate operator to improve the particle swarm algorithm.The results show that the Northern Sea Route can share approximately 7.88%of the cargo volume between Northeast Asia and Europe.If the ice breaking fee is not considered,12.7%of the cargo will be diverted to the Northern Sea Route.If the Northern Sea Route is opened all year round,34.74%of cargo volume will be transferred to the Northern Sea Route.