OD Estimation Of Bus Passenger Flow And Its Sensitivity Analysis

The demand analysis of bus passenger flow is the basic work of public transportation planning and transportation organization program analysis,and the OD matrix of residents’ travel bus is its most basic basis.The direct investigation and acquisition of OD matrix requires a lot of time,manpower and material resources.Compared with the former,the amount of traffic investigation can be reduced by inverting the OD matrix by observing the bus passenger flow.Therefore,more and more scholars choose to infer the resident trip OD matrix by observing the bus passenger flow and other information.This paper mainly introduces the following contents:(1)Introduced the related theories and methods of OD inversion,compared different OD inversion models,and selected the three inversion models mainly studied in this paper,namely probability theory model,gravity model and mathematical programming model.(2)The sensitivity analysis method was introduced,and the main sensitivity factors of three OD back-deduced models were selected.Combined with the purpose of OD back-deduced,root mean square error,mean relative error and modal confidence criterion were selected as the evaluation indexes of sensitivity analysis.(3)The road network model was established by combining the road network of a medium-sized city in China,and the data obtained from the survey were analyzed and sorted out to calibrate the road resistance function coefficients of the three types of roads respectively.(4)The single factor sensitivity analysis method was used to compare the OD backward extrapolation matrix with the reference OD matrix,and to study the change of the OD backward extrapolation accuracy.The results show that when the average number of travel stops is 5.3(station/person/day),the accuracy of OD inversion is the highest.When the gravity model is used for OD inversion,the attraction weight of the property of residential land is suggested to be used for OD inversion analysis.When applying the mathematical programming model,it is suggested that the random user equilibrium method should be used in the traffic allocation method,and the suggested value range of α and β is put forward.The comparison of the three models shows that the mathematical programming model is the best.The conclusion of the above related laws enriches the content of bus passenger OD backward pushing,and has a very important reference significance for public transportation demand analysis.