Digital Finance、Business Cycle And The Risk Of Corporate Debt Default

In recent years,there are many enterprises in trouble due to debt default in China.Yihua group,Yongtai energy and other well-known enterprises have successively erupted debt crises due to their failure to pay interest on time,which has attracted extensive attention from all walks of life.In the outline for the development of China’s digital economy(2020),the added value of China’s digital economy will reach 35.8 trillion yuan in 2019,accounting for 36.2%of GDP and 67.7%of GDP growth.The increase of debt default risk not only threatens the normal operation of micro enterprises,but also leads to pessimistic market expectations if it is not handled in time,induces banks and other creditors to tighten credit,speed up the collection of funds,forms a series of defaults,and even risk management of the entire financial system,which deviates from the goal of "keeping the bottom line of systemic financial risk".Therefore,exploring the influencing factors of debt default risk and targeted governance of debt default risk have become an important topic under the new situation.With the advent of the digital age,China’s digital finance and digital economy continue to expand,data value is accelerated,digital technology and real economy are integrated,and the potential of industrial digital application is released.According to the white paper on the development of China’s digital economy(2020),the added value of China’s digital economy will reach 35.8 trillion yuan in 2019,accounting for 36.2%of GDP and contributing 67.7%to China’s GDP growth.Combing the existing literature on the influencing factors of corporate debt default risk from the external environment,scholars mostly start from the environmental uncertainty and the cyclical fluctuation of the financial environment,which has not been extended to how the emerging digital finance affects corporate default risk in recent years.Existing studies have shown that liquidity pressure and information asymmetry are important factors affecting enterprise default risk.As a new financial business model,digital finance can play a resource effect on the one hand and an information effect on the other.Therefore,in the context of the accelerated development of China’s digital economy,further discussion is necessary to the issue of whether digital finance affects the risk of corporate debt default.Based on the above analysis,we investigated the impact of digital Finance on the risk of corporate debt in Shenzhen and Shanghai,takes the data from 2011 to 2018 as the sample period,and uses Tobit model to explore.It further examines the regulatory effect of economic cycle on the relationship between digital finance and debt default risk.The study found that:(1)digital finance can reduce risk effectively corporate debt default;(2)economic contraction will strengthen the inhibitory effect of digital Finance on corporate debt default risk.(3)the research on the influence path shows that digital finance can play resource effects and information effects,and reduce the risk of default of enterprise debt by alleviating the constraints of enterprise financing and improving the transparency of information.Further research found that:(4)The coverage and depth of digital finance can significantly reduce the risk of corporate debt default,but the impact of digital degree on the risk of corporate debt default is not significant;Economic contraction will strengthen the inhibitory effect of the specific characteristics of digital Finance on the risk of corporate debt default.(5)The group test on the level of internal governance,strategic arrangement and external supervision of enterprises shows that digital finance can significantly reduce corporate debt default for enterprises with less management shareholding,diversified operation and less analyst tracking;in the group with less management shareholding,diversified operation and less analyst tracking,the inhibition of economic contraction on the relationship between them is stronger.