Application Reseach Of Real Option Method In Investment Decision Of UHV Project

The 14th Five-Year Plan is a critical period for energy reform.The key to achieving the"dual carbon" goal is to reduce carbon emissions from the power generation and consumption end.The effective way to reduce carbon emission at the power generation end is to develop clean energy,while the effective way to reduce carbon emission at the consumer end is to increase electric energy consumption and reduce fossil energy use.However,clean energy is mainly distributed in the western region of China,while the provinces with large power consumption are mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions.The gap between clean energy supply and electricity demand is inversely distributed.In recent years,China has been vigorously promoting the construction of trans-regional power grids mainly with UHV,making full use of clean energy in resource-rich areas,increasing power generation,improving the power transmission capacity in electricity-rich areas,and alleviating the power shortage pressure in central and eastern provinces.In the future,China will focus on the construction of UHV projects,and reasonable investment decisions for UHV projects are the key concerns of investors.First of all,through literature research,it is found that the traditional net present value method is usually used to make investment decisions in electricity projects.Secondly,based on the theory of traditional project investment decision method and real option method,the traditional project investment decision method and real option method are compared.Thirdly,by analyzing the characteristics of UHV project investment decision,it is concluded that the investment decision of UHV project will be affected by uncertain factors such as national policy,natural environment and technology,and the application of traditional net present value method in UHV project investment decision is insufficient,while the application of real option method in UHV project investment decision has more advantages.Then,combined with the characteristics of UHV project investment decision,the suitable model of UHV project investment decision is constructed.Finally,taking THE ULTRA-high voltage project A as an example,the model is applied to the investment decision of ultra-high voltage project A,the investment value of the project is calculated,and the sensitivity analysis of parameters is tested.The results show that the project investment value calculated by real option method is much higher than that calculated by traditional NPV method,which further verifies the feasibility of the project.The optimal investment time can be determined by using real option method to make investment decision.The sensitivity analysis results show that the investment value model under real option method is more robust.Therefore,it is more reasonable to use real option method to make investment decision for UHV projects.When the real option method is applied to the investment decision of UHV projects,on the one hand,the option value brought by project uncertainty can be measured,the flexible value of investment decision can be quantified,and the investment value of the project can be improved.On the other hand,it improves the limitation of traditional NPV method in investment decision making,avoids investors from judging whether a project is feasible only based on NPV data,and negates projects with large uncertainty and high long-term development value,providing investors with new investment decision making ideas.