The Impact Of European Energy Strategy Choices On Russia’s Energy Structural Power Since The Ukraine Crisis

Energy security is related to the lifeline of national development,which has strong political and risk characteristics.Today,when the world economy is increasingly connected,global energy transformation is accelerating,and geopolitical competition is intensifying,energy has already surpassed its natural attributes of resources and economic attributes of commodities,and belongs to the high-level political category of "safety".In the field of energy,Russia and Europe have a profound historical relationship.As early as the Soviet Union,Russia had sold oil,natural gas and other energy to Europe through multiple pipelines.In recent years,the two sides have reached a number of energy cooperation,further deepening the energy dependence.However,political differences between Russia and Europe have always existed,which has become an obstacle in the energy relationship between the two sides.After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in 2022,the energy issue has once again become the focus of world attention due to the political conflicts between the two sides.In the past year,Russia and Europe have launched tit-for-tat sanctions and counter-sanctions in the energy field.As the measures come into effect one after another,problems such as shortage of natural gas supply,skyrocketing energy prices,and historically low energy inventories are gradually exposed.For the first time,Europe is facing an unprecedented energy security crisis.There are already traces of Russia’s performance in this energy confrontation so strong.Under the strategic guidance of Putin’s pragmatism,Russia is committed to enhancing its voice in the global energy system with its abundant energy reserves,diversified export channels and strong energy export capabilities.Europe has always been an important partner and focus of Russia’s energy sector.After the Ukrainian crisis,it has become one of the goals of Russia’s energy westward strategy to cultivate its absolute advantage over European energy,improve its ability to resist risks,and increase its bargaining chips.This article attempts to use Susan Strange’s structural power theory to analyze how Russia shapes its own structural power within the global energy system through security structures,production and trade structures,financial structures,and knowledge structures.Under this theoretical framework,this paper focuses on the relationship between the choice of European energy strategy after the Ukraine crisis and the structural power changes in Russia.On the one hand,Russia’s invisible power can directly affect Europe’s energy supply or political decision-making,posing a threat to energy security.On the other hand,it indirectly urges Europe to strengthen its own energy security through policies such as diversifying energy imports,optimizing energy structure,and promoting sustainable energy development.And when Europe gradually implements the development strategy of energy independence,Russia’s energy structural power will be restrained accordingly,and Russia will also introduce energy transformation measures to maintain its absolute position in the European energy structure.From a vertical perspective,Russia’s energy structural power over Europe is changing dynamically.In the period when Europe was obviously dependent on Russia’s energy,Russia’s energy structural power over Europe was relatively strong,and its impact on Europe’s energy security was also relatively large.Nevertheless,in view of the interdependence between Russia and Europe in the energy field,the adjustment and reform of European energy strategy will also affect Russia’s energy structural power to some extent.After the Ukraine crisis,as Europe felt the threat of energy security and issued a series of energy documents to get rid of Russia,Russia’s energy structural power over Europe showed a downward trend,and the impact on its energy security decreased accordingly.At that time,Europe will gain an energy advantage over Russia.The current Russia-Ukraine conflict just provides an opportunity for this transformation.In the short term,given Europe’s strong dependence on Russian energy,Russia’s "energy weapons" have indeed played a certain role.Problems such as energy supply shortage and increased energy expenditure are emerging in Europe one after another.However,in the long run,Russia’s last "energy card" to Europe will also be invalid,and this energy decoupling is more unilaterally promoted by Europe.On the one hand,the energy dispute between Russia and Europe has accelerated the energy decoupling between Europe and Russia.On the other hand,Russia’s power over Europe’s energy structure is no longer what it used to be.In this context,no matter how the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends,the energy relations between Russia and Europe will never return to the past.