Research On Optimization Of Coupled Photovoltaic Power Generation Cooling Heating And Power System Under Climate Change

Combined cooling,heating and power(CCHP)coupled with photovoltaic power generation can give full play to the advantages of energy cascade utilization,effectively improve the utilization efficiency of primary energy,increase the absorption rate and permeability of new energy,and reduce the emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases,which is of great strategic significance for promoting the low-carbon development of national society and economy.However,under the background of climate change,the system still faces a series of problems.On the one hand,the fluctuation of meteorological factors such as temperature and radiation intensified the difficulty of building load forecasting,which leads to the distortion of CCHP system coupled with photovoltaic power generation and cannot guide the actual operation.On the other hand,the system is also faced with multiple uncertainties of supply-side renewable energy and demand-side load,which can easily lead to imbalance between energy supply and demand and affect the safety and economy of the system.In order to solve the above problems,this paper takes a hotel in Nanjing as an example,and based on the PRECIS regional climate model,TRNSYS software,PVsyst software,stochastic programming algorithm and interval optimization algorithm,constructs the CCHP system operation optimization model considering climate change and multiple uncertainties.The specific research contents are as follows.Firstly,considering the influence of different climatic conditions on CCHP system coupled with photovoltaic power generation,the meteorological parameters of SSP2-4.5 scenario and SSP5-8.5 scenario in many years in the future are simulated based on the PRECIS regional climate model,and the TRNSYS load forecasting model and PVsyst photovoltaic output model are built around the research case.With the PRECIS meteorological data as input variables,they are substituted into TRNSYS and PVsyst respectively,and the energy demand and photovoltaic output in different climate scenarios in the future are obtained.Secondly,taking the minimum operating cost as the objective function,the energy load and photovoltaic power generation under climate change conditions as the demand constraints and output constraints,respectively,combined with the CCHP system simulation model,the integrated operation optimization model of CCHP system coupled with photovoltaic power generation is established,and solved by LINGO software,and the hot,cold and electric operation schemes and cost change rules of the system under different climate scenarios are obtained.Finally,in order to avoid the influence of the uncertainty of photovoltaic output and user load on the system operation safety,based on stochastic programming method and interval programming method,an integrated optimization model of CCHP system with future climate simulation,equipment simulation,building load prediction and uncertainty treatment is innovatively constructed,and the optimal operation strategy of the system under uncertain conditions is obtained,which comprehensively improves the comprehensive benefits of the system and can provide theoretical support for the operation design and large-scale promotion of hotel CCHP system.