Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between China’s Renewable Energy And International Oil From The Perspective Of Oil Financialization

In the global energy transition situation,renewable energy has attracted widespread attention.There is a substitution or complementary relationship between renewable energy and oil at the basic economic level,but the emergence of the financialization of oil has led to the gradual weakening of the commodity attributes and the increasing financial attributes of oil,bringing a lot of information noise to oil prices that is not related to the basic economic information side.At the same time,the oil market has become more connected with the financial market,and financial factors such as speculative behavior and stock market have accelerated the process of financialization of oil and increased the volatility of oil prices.In recent years,China’s renewable energy consumption and oil foreign dependence are increasing year by year.Therefore,the thesis selects China’s renewable energy consumption and international oil price,and studies the influence of financialization of oil on the relationship between them from two aspects: information noise and financial factors,respectively.First,the thesis selects the data of China’s renewable energy consumption and WTI crude oil futures settlement price from 1993-2018,and studies the dynamic correlation between the two by establishing a DCC-MIDAS mixing model.The research results show that there is a dynamic correlation between China’s renewable energy and international crude oil,but the correlation is weak and time-varying and complex.Second,in order to eliminate the information noise brought by oil financialization on WTI crude oil price,the oil price trend factor is constructed by moving average method,and the dynamic correlation model is established using China’s renewable energy consumption and oil price trend factor.It is found that the correlation between China’s renewable energy and international crude oil is significantly enhanced after attenuating the effect of information noise on oil prices.Finally,the correlation coefficients obtained in the first two studies are extracted and the main financial factors that lead to the financialization of oil(speculation in the crude oil market,gold,stock market and dollar exchange rate)are analyzed through a TVP-VAR model to analyze the impact on the relationship between renewable energy and oil,and it is verified that four financial factors affect the correlation between the two.