| With the acceleration of globalization and urbanization,regional development is facing a series of uncertain risks,including acute shocks such as earthquakes,floods and other natural disasters,chronic pressures such as economic recession,resource shortages and other practical problems.Resilience,as a concept of active exploration,adaptation,and transformation,provides a good idea for regional sustainable development,The study of urban and regional resilience has gradually become a hot topic in academic community at home and abroad.In the 14 th Five Year Plan,China proposes to promote the new urbanization with people at the core and build resilient cities.Therefore,enhancing the ability and level of a region to resist internal and external risks is of great significance for regional sustainable development.This article analyzes the concept connotation and evaluation framework of urban resilience and regional resilience,and takes Kaizhou District as the research object to construct a regional resilience evaluation index system that includes five dimensions:ecology,economy,society,infrastructure,and safety,and explores the development trend and spatial differences of regional resilience in Kaizhou District.The entropy weight method and the BP neural network model based on genetic algorithm optimization are used to measure the regional resilience level in Kaizhou District.The coordinated development status of resilience in five dimensions is evaluated by using a coupling coordination degree model.The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to explore the relationship between comprehensive resilience and the coordinated development status of resilience in five dimensions,as well as the relationship between the urbanization rate of the permanent population and regional resilience.Finally,based on the previous research and analysis,strategies for improving regional resilience are proposed from both the overall and spatial levels of Kaizhou District.The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)From the time perspective,the resilience index of various dimensions and comprehensive resilience index in Kaizhou District have shown an increasing trend since 2010 to 2021.According to the rate of change,different development stages can be divided,and the degree of influence of each factor varies in different stages.Over the past 12 years,the coupling degree,the coordination index,and the coupling coordination degree of resilience in the five dimensions have all shown an upward trend.Among them,the coupling coordination degree has gone through a process from severe imbalance to near imbalance,indicating that the coordinated development level of resilience in various dimensions has improved but still needs to be strengthened.The Pearson correlation coefficient results indicate that the comprehensive resilience index is highly positively correlated with the coupling coordination degree of the five dimensions of resilience,and the urbanization rate of the permanent population is significantly positively correlated with the five dimensions of resilience and comprehensive resilience.(2)From the spatial perspective,the resilience of various dimensions and comprehensive resilience in the central urban area are at a high level,while the resilience of various dimensions and comprehensive resilience in towns have a significant gap compared to the central urban area.From the perspective of the degree of coordinated development of resilience,except for Xuebaoshan,Guanmian,and Maliu,the coupling degree is in the transitional stage,while the coupling degree of other towns and central urban areas is in a high-level coupling stage.The coupling coordination degree of resilience in the five dimensions of the central urban area and towns is in an imbalanced state,with the central urban area and Guojia Town in a mild imbalanced state,and the other towns in a moderate imbalanced state. |
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