Research On Credit Risk Of Lithium Battery Industry Chain Based On KMV And Social Network Analysis Model

High-quality development is the primary task for China to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way.In the context of the "dual carbon" goal,emerging industries represented by new energy vehicles have become one of the important engines driving high-quality economic recovery in the context of economic downturn.At present,the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage has brought unexpected demand for lithium batteries,leading to the rapid expansion of production capacity in the lithium battery industry.Due to the close connection between the upstream,midstream,and downstream of the lithium battery industry,the credit risk of some lithium battery companies is gradually emerging and may affect other companies in the industry chain.However,previous research on credit risk has mostly focused on industries such as finance and real estate where people are concerned about high credit risks.This article innovatively focuses on the easily overlooked lithium battery industry,aiming to further improve the credit risk research of the lithium battery industry and provide useful reference for the high-quality development of China’s emerging real economy.This paper aims to conduct theoretical and empirical research on the credit risk of China’s lithium battery industry chain.First of all,this paper combs the relevant literature on credit risk research and lithium battery industry risk research at home and abroad in recent years.This paper describes the credit risk theory,KMV model theory and Social Network Analysis model theory studied in this paper,introduces the development status and existing problems of China’s lithium battery industry chain,and lays a theoretical foundation for the research.Secondly,this paper selects 40 sample listed companies distributed in the upper,middle and lower reaches,and uses their financial data to calculate the model parameters such as equity value,volatility,default trigger point,etc.through the KMV model to obtain the asset value,asset value volatility,and finally the default distance and expected default rate to measure the level of credit risk.Finally,based on the default distance calculated by KMV model,the credit risk correlation network of lithium battery industry chain is established through Social Network Analysis model to analyze the credit risk infection of lithium battery industry chain.The study found that in recent years,the overall credit risk level of China’s lithium battery industry chain enterprises has presented the characteristics of "low-high-low".The credit risk level of upstream and midstream enterprises is high,while that of downstream enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain is low.The credit risk correlation between the upstream,middle and downstream enterprises in China’s lithium battery industry is strong,and the upstream lithium battery enterprises are at the core of the entire network model.If other enterprises want to have an impact in the industry,they need to use these enterprises as intermediaries.The credit risk status of lithium battery leading enterprises represented by CATL and HANRUI COBALT is less affected by other enterprises.Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward three suggestions for the credit risk measurement of lithium battery industry chain: improving the credit default risk database construction of listed companies in the whole industry as soon as possible,improving the development of China’s multi-level capital market,strengthening the effective supervision of the capital market,and improving the application of KMV model.For the internal risk management of the lithium battery industry,three suggestions are put forward to improve the development quality of the whole lithium battery industry chain,make good use of financial instruments to avoid risks,and enhance the attention of risk enterprises.