Research On Cost Risk Assessment Of Prefabricated Buildings Based On Bayesian Networks

In recent years,assembled buildings have shown an overall trend of high-speed development due to their energy-saving,environmental protection,safety and lowcarbon characteristics,which has promoted the development and progress of China’s construction industry.However,the development of assembled buildings has been constrained by cost issues,and in the process of their construction,the lack of understanding of cost risks has easily caused cost overruns or schedule delays.In addition,it is difficult to quantify the cost risks of assembled buildings and there are interactions among the risk factors,which makes it difficult to conduct in-depth research on the cost management of assembled buildings.Therefore,in order to effectively reduce the cost risk of assembled buildings and improve the cost management of assembled buildings,this thesis constructs a Bayesian network-based cost risk evaluation model for assembled buildings,obtains the key cost risk factors and the correlation between the risk factors at each stage of assembled buildings through the inference and analysis function of the model,and proposes targeted cost risk control countermeasures.The main research contents and research work of this thesis are as follows.Firstly,the literature related to cost risk management of assembled buildings at home and abroad is studied to get the preliminary cost risk influencing factors of assembled buildings;the cost risk influencing factors are screened,supplemented and revised through expert interviews,actual engineering case analysis and affiliation survey,and the cost risk evaluation index system of assembled buildings is constructed.Secondly,using the explanatory structural modeling method to analyze the obtained cost risk factors of assembled buildings hierarchically and logically,and based on this,the Bayesian network theory was introduced to construct a Bayesian network model for cost risk evaluation of assembled buildings,and the key cost risk factors of assembled buildings were obtained according to the model analysis results as the experience and ability of designers,improper protection of component production,the level of project managers Based on the results,the article proposes corresponding cost risk control countermeasures in terms of strengthening the skills assessment and training of professional personnel,protecting the prefabricated components and establishing and applying the information management system.Finally,the cost risk in the on-site assembly construction stage of a new assembly-type rental housing project in Shanghai is analyzed,and the cost risk factors that the project should focus on controlling are identified,so as to reduce the incidence of cost risk and ensure the economic benefits of the project.The thesis introduces the theory of explanatory structural model and Bayesian network theory into the research of cost risk evaluation of assembly construction,which enriches the existing research results of cost risk evaluation of assembly construction and provides a more effective scientific management method to improve the level of cost management of assembly construction.