| The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)is a free trade agreement initiated by ASEAN and jointly signed with 15 countries including China,South Korea,Japan,Australia,and New Zealand.The continuous promotion of RCEP from signing to formal implementation has injected new impetus into the global economy.The tariff commitment table provided by each country in the agreement is an important content of the RCEP goods trade clause.The tariff reduction of each country in different industries brings opportunities and challenges to the trade of goods among member countries in the region.After years of development,China’s trade in mechanical and electrical products has reached a considerable scale,with trading partner countries covering various parts of the world.However,there are still problems with a large trade deficit and weak product export advantages.As an important member of RCEP,China is facing the impact of RCEP.How to respond to the challenges of tax reduction in RCEP while utilizing the opportunities it brings to promote the development of domestic mechanical and electrical product trade and achieve the transformation and upgrading of the mechanical and electrical industry is a problem worth studying.Therefore,it is necessary to grasp the impact of RCEP tariff reduction on China’s mechanical and electrical product trade,formulate targeted response measures,reduce the potential impact on relevant enterprises,and promote the high-quality development of China’s mechanical and electrical product trade.This article first reviews relevant research on China’s trade in mechanical and electrical products and RCEP,and introduces the dynamic and static effects of tariff union theory.Secondly,the trade status of mechanical and electrical products between China and various member countries of RCEP was analyzed,comprehensively grasping the overall trade volume of mechanical and electrical products in China and the trade structure of mechanical and electrical products in the RCEP region.Statistical data shows that China has a significant trade deficit in mechanical and electrical products within the RCEP region.The RCA index shows that China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products are in a weak position compared to Japan and South Korea,and trade exports are limited.secondly,.Thirdly,using the simulation function of international policy effect of GTAP model,the impact of tax reduction commitments of member countries in different periods in the RCEP tariff commitment table on China’s mechanical and electrical products trade is simulated.After robustness test,the simulation results are analyzed and feasible solutions are proposed.The simulation results show that the RCEP tax reduction has led to a positive overall development of macroeconomic indicators such as China’s welfare level,trade scale,and terms of trade.At the same time,the changes in the trade of mechanical and electrical products caused by the tax reduction of mechanical and electrical products have impacted some of China’s mechanical and electrical product trade in the short term,but there has been a significant increase in the overall import and export volume of mechanical and electrical products in the long term.In terms of product segmentation,the impact of RCEP tax reduction on the import,export,and output of three types of products varies in the short term.Among them,there are significant changes in the export of transportation vehicles,the import of mechanical and electrical equipment,and the output of instruments and meters.However,in the long run,China’s mechanical and electrical products will basically achieve certain growth in export,import,and output.Finally,based on the above results,it was found that the RCEP tax reduction will have a short-term impact on China’s mechanical and electrical product trade,while promoting long-term development.This article will combine the current international trade situation of China’s mechanical and electrical products and provide corresponding suggestions on how to avoid risks and achieve high-quality development during the RCEP tax reduction process: strengthen foreign economic and trade cooperation,optimize the structure of mechanical and electrical trade;Introduce industrial support policies and increase the protection of vulnerable industries;Cultivate standardized talent standards and continuously enhance core competitiveness;Improve the domestic business environment and enhance the ability to resist risks. |