Research On Default Risk Of Personal Auto Loan In China

Personal auto loans are a key part of consumer finance,which is of great significance to economic stability and prosperity,especially in the context of the epidemic.However,with the continuous growth of auto consumption and the growing auto loan market,the problem of controlling the default risk of personal auto loan is becoming more and more prominent.Research on default risk in personal auto loan can help control financial risk,promote the development of auto finance market,promote consumption and boost economic growth.This thesis selects the data of 34624 samples of a well-known domestic auto finance company whose loan maturity date is May 2014,and analyzes and forecasts the default risk of personal auto loan by using the basic characteristics of individuals,basic characteristics of loans,and risk management characteristics.The results show that:(1)The basic characteristics of individuals have a significant impact on the default risk of personal auto loan.Borrowers who are married,female and older are less likely to default,and borrowers whose bank statements reflect monthly income are more likely to default;(2)The basic characteristics of loan have significant influence on default risk of personal auto loan.The smaller the current repayment pressure,the lower the probability of default.Higher interest rates can push weaker borrowers out of the market;(3)Risk management characteristics are significantly correlated with default risk.The higher the customer score is,the lower the default risk is.Mortgage will reduce the default risk of personal auto loan,while the uncertainty of risk management represented by special case will increase the default risk;(4)There are regional and gender heterogeneity in influencing factors of personal auto loan default risk.(5)The random forest model based on the basic characteristics of individuals,the basic characteristics of loans,and the characteristics of risk management can better identify nonlinear factors and more accurately predict the default behavior of personal auto loans.Therefore,financial institutions should use advanced machine learning algorithms to strengthen risk control and management of auto loan;The government should further improve the credit evaluation system,vigorously develop the application of big data,implement differentiated loan policies,stabilize people’s livelihood and guarantee the performance ability,so as to reduce the default risk of personal auto loans,promote the improvement and development of the auto loan market,and promote economic stability and prosperity.