Research On Complexity Measurement Of Major Infrastructure Projects Based On Markov Jump Dynamic Network Model

In 2021,China’s central government once again proposed to expand effective investment,continue to support major infrastructure projects for coordinated regional development,promoting the construction of "two new and one heavy" and implement a number of major infrastructure projects that belong to national infrastructure and benefit national economic evaluation(hereinafter referred to as "megaprojects").Unlike general projects,megaprojects are highly complex,which are not only affected by external environment,but also change over time and are closely related to the development of the project itself.However,with the development of the epoch,the complexity of megaprojects has increased,making project management increasingly difficult and seriously affecting project delivery.Obviously,the inappropriateness of traditional complexity metric models gradually emerges when facing megaprojects.Therefore,it is necessary to break through the traditional project management and engineering management perspective,draw on the ideas of complex system science,integrate the latest theories and bench marking practices of megaprojects management,and adopt a combination of qualitative and quantitative,theoretical and empirical cross-checking methods to deeply analyze key issues such as identification and measurement of complexity dimensions and influencing factors of megaprojects.The research focuses on two key issues: "the complexity of megaprojects changes throughout the project whole life cycle,which is difficult to measure and control comprehensively" and "megaprojects are open ’complex giant systems’ with many complexity influencing factors." Firstly,this research extracts 6 complexity dimensions of megaprojects and 69 complexity influencing factors from high quality literature on complexity of megaprojects by analyzing and organizing the literature on complexity of megaprojects.Secondly,Markov jump dynamic network model based on the perspective of whole life cycle of megaprojects has been constructed,combined with relevant theories and literature,and imports database data to measure the theoretical model.Finally,a typical case of a megaproject,Hainan Puchian Cross-Sea Bridge,is selected and analyzed through the dynamic network model,and two scenarios of mixed time lag and random disturbance are added to explore each complexity dimension and overall project complexity respectively,and the model results are interpreted to propose complexity reduction strategies for megaprojects.According to the results,it was found that the overall complexity level of the Hainan Puchian Cross-Sea Bridge project was higher at 2.0412 with a relative complexity level of 111.77% compared to the average complexity level of 1.8262 for megaprojects derived from the theoretical model.The overall complexity level of the project increases by 71.58% and 76.18% under the time lag and random disturbance scenarios,respectively,indicating that the context has a strong influence on the complexity level of this case project.On the other hand,the technical complexity,environmental complexity and social complexity dimensions become the largest sources of complexity for the Hainan Puchian Bridge project.In this research,a feasible complexity reduction strategy for megaprojects based on the simulation results is proposed: it can reduce the complexity of megaprojects by systematically managing the sources and dimensions of complexity of megaprojects,deeply investigating the sources of individual complexity influencing factors,focusing on the dynamic changes of subsystems in the project,and managing the project with reference to the project complexity score.Based on the above complexity reduction strategies,the current project management model can be improved to enhance the quality and efficiency of megaprojects.