Study On Optimization Of Territorial Spatial Pattern Of Hefei City Under "Dual Carbon" Target

It is of great significance to explore the spatio-temporal evolution law of territorial spatial pattern and carbon emissions,to carry out simulation and optimization of territorial spatial pattern and to predict the evolution trend of carbon emissions under different scenarios,and to promote the realization of inter-regional "dual carbon" goal.In this thesis,Hefei City is taken as the research area.Firstly,the changes of territorial space scale and layout,as well as territorial space carbon emissions in the study period are calculated,and the relationship between them is discussed.Secondly,the evaluation system was constructed by referring to the "double evaluation".On the basis of the overall identification of the current resource demand pressure and the future development suitability of the ecological,agricultural,urban and other functional Spaces of Hefei’s territorial space,PLUS model was used to simulate the future territorial space pattern of Hefei.Finally,by using the future territorial spatial pattern and Kaya identity to predict the future territorial spatial net carbon emissions of Hefei City,judge the realization of the "dual carbon" goal,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the study period,the spatial pattern of Hefei changed significantly,and the net carbon emission of the territorial space increased significantly.The cultivated land is the main type of land space in Hefei.The area of construction land and water area shows an increasing trend,the area of cultivated land and forest land shows a decreasing trend,and the scale of grassland and unused land keeps relatively stable,among which the change range of construction land and cultivated land is the largest.The change of spatial layout is mainly manifested by the expansion of construction land in the main urban area and near the center of the county.The spatial carbon emission and carbon absorption of Hefei showed an increasing trend,and the net carbon emission increased year by year.The construction land showed carbon emission,and the other spatial types showed carbon absorption.Cultivated land was the most important land for carbon absorption.The transfer and change between various types of territorial space in Hefei City has caused a lot of changes in carbon emissions and carbon absorption.The change of carbon transfer mainly comes from the conversion between cultivated land and construction land.It is crucial to regulate the conversion between the two and increase the carbon absorption land such as forest land and grassland to increase sinks and reduce emissions.(2)The extremely important,important and generally important ecological protection areas in Hefei accounted for 2.35%,25.72% and 71.93%,respectively;The suitable,generally suitable and unsuitable areas of agricultural production accounted for 31.75%,22.60% and 45.65% respectively.In Hefei,13.16%,65.32% and 21.52% of urban construction areas are suitable,generally suitable and unsuitable.In general,Lujiang County in the south of Hefei,Chaohu City in the east and a small part of Feixi County in the west are more important for ecological protection;Changfeng County,Feixi County and Feidong County in the north and central part are more suitable for agricultural production;urban construction is more suitable within the main urban area in the central part of Hefei and near the counties.(3)The results of the simulation and optimization of Hefei’s territorial spatial pattern were consistent with the results of the "double evaluation".The construction land in the main urban area showed a "butterfly" expansion trend,and the construction land in Lujiang County and Chaohu City was more concentrated than that in Feidong County,Changfeng County and Feixi County.The growth of forest land was mainly concentrated in Lujiang County,Chaohu City and near Zipengshan National Forest Park in the west.The cultivated land was occupied by construction land,while the grassland was mostly converted to forest land.Water area and unused land remain basically stable.(4)In terms of the realization of carbon peaking in Hefei under different scenarios,the peak year of carbon emissions in Hefei is between 2025 and 2035,and the carbon peaking target can be achieved under both low-carbon scenarios and deep emission reduction scenarios.From the perspective of the realization of carbon neutrality in Hefei under different scenarios,there are still about 3,077,700 tons to 25,729,100 tons of carbon neutrality in Hefei by 2060.Therefore,there is still a certain pressure on Hefei to achieve carbon neutrality in the future only by optimizing the spatial pattern of its territory.However,after considering the effective connection between CCUS technology and carbon trading market,It is entirely possible for Hefei to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.