Research On The Impact Of Energy Aid On African Imports Of Chinese Photovoltaic Products

Electricity shortage is a long-standing problem in Africa,which has seriously hindered Africa’s economic development.In the past,Africa has been using fossil fuels to generate electricity for a long time,which not only brings a huge financial burden to African governments,but also brings climate problems.Africa is in urgent need of a local renewable energy-based power generation model,and solar photovoltaic power generation is a good choice.However,Africa’s photovoltaic industry is lagging behind in development and lacks appropriate capital and technology,requiring external financial assistance and large imports of photovoltaic products to improve the situation.Energy aid is an effective tool in today’s international community to help countries or regions lagging behind in development to improve their energy structure and enhance energy use efficiency.To that end,the international community has reached out to Africa to provide a large amount of energy assistance,energy assistance in helping Africa to alleviate energy shortages at the same time,but also to expand Africa’s imports of photovoltaic products.Chinese PV products have high international competitiveness,and it is worth paying attention to what impact energy aid has on the export of Chinese PV products to Africa.In addition,the mechanism of impact,the degree of influence importance and the development trend are worth studying.On the one hand,the research of this paper has some theoretical value to answer the above questions,and on the other hand,it has some practical significance to promote Chinese PV products export to Africa.This paper firstly introduces the background of the chosen topic,defines the core notions and conducts a literature review;and composes the literature;secondly,it analyzes the development of African PV industry and the import status of PV products;then analyzes the theoretical mechanism of energy aid affecting the import of Chinese PV products in Africa;then carries out an econometric empirical test on the influence of energy aid on the import of Chinese PV products in Africa,and further analyzes the importance degree and bias dependence relationship of energy aid affecting the import of Chinese PV products in Africa based on the econometric test using the machine learning method;finally puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the research.Based on the empirical test,we analyzed the importance and bias dependence of energy aid on China’s PV imports in Africa,and predicted the future development based on the machine learning method;finally,related policy suggestions are proposed based on the study.The following main research conclusions are drawn from the indepth study.Firstly,Africa’s total electricity consumption is rising,with fossil fuel-based power generation;Africa’s total solar photovoltaic power generation and installed capacity are growing rapidly,but there are problems such as outstanding electricity consumption,immature development of photovoltaic products and lack of capital;Africa’s total imports of photovoltaic products are rising,with China being the most important country for African imports of photovoltaic products,and the eastern and western regions of Africa becoming the main markets for imports of Chinese photovoltaic products.The total amount of energy aid received by Africa shows a fluctuating upward trend,in which the region receiving the most total energy aid is the northern region of Africa,and the least is the southern region of Africa.Second,theoretically,energy aid can influence Africa’s imports of Chinese PV products through direct and indirect mechanisms.Among them,energy aid can directly make recipient countries increase their imports of PV products through the assistance of energy funds and projects;at the same time,energy aid can also exert indirect influence through the mechanisms of improving energy generation structure,increasing Internet usage and reducing carbon emission intensity.Third,the findings of the econometric tests show that energy aid has a significant and robust positive impact on recipient countries’ imports of Chinese PV products;energy aid does have a heterogeneous effect on the import of Chinese PV products in Africa,as shown by the fact that the effects of energy aid are not the same at different trade levels,different investment levels,and different fossil fuel generation levels.Empirical tests of the indirect effects show that: energy aid can promote increased imports of Chinese PV products in Africa by improving the energy generation mix,reducing fossil fuel generation,and increasing renewable energy generation;energy aid can also promote imports of Chinese PV products in Africa by increasing Internet usage,fixed broadband subscriptions,and personal Internet usage rates;energy assistance can also reduce CO2 emission intensity to decrease CO2 emissions and facilitate the use of renewable energy for electricity generation in recipient countries,thus enhancing imports of Chinese PV products.The fourth,machine learning study found that among the characteristic variables examined,energy aid is an important variable affecting African imports of Chinese PV products,second only to the effect of carbon emissions,reaching a level of 24%;from the partial dependence plot,the overall impact of energy aid on African imports of PV products shows a fluctuating upward trend,and more energy aid is not better,for example,when energy aid is in the range of US$400,000 to US$500,000,the impact of energy aid on African imports of Chinese PV products decreases.For example,the impact of energy aid on African imports of Chinese PV products decreases when the energy aid is in the range of US$400,000 to US$500,000.Using the random forest model prediction found that the overall import of Chinese PV products by African countries gradually increases in the next few years,which shows that Africa has a good prospect of demand for Chinese PV products and has a broad market space.According to the findings of the study,the following recommendations are made:(1)Donor countries should allocate energy aid funds more in favor of countries with low trade levels,low investment levels and low fossil fuel generation.At the same time,it is necessary to consider the needs and strengths of developing countries,and adjust the range of energy aid funds appropriately,so that these funds can play a better role in the recipient countries.(2)When receiving energy aid,recipient countries should improve the local energy generation structure,increase the use of Internet and reduce carbon emission intensity,encourage the use of clean energy generation,motivate local enterprises and residents to use photovoltaic power generation,improve the local investment environment,and attract more investment.(3)As an assisting country,China needs to efficiently use the South-South Cooperation Fund and other funding channels to provide assistance within its capacity,actively share its experience in building the PV industry,and provide technical support and assistance.As a large exporter of PV products,Chinese enterprises can expand PV product exports by means of energy aid,while considering the heterogeneous performance of energy aid in different countries;each PV enterprise should anticipate the development trend of demand for Chinese PV products in African countries,and scientifically plan and develop the markets of each country.In addition,Chinese PV enterprises should also pay attention to the influence of other factors,for example,to pay attention to the impact of changes in carbon emissions of various countries on PV imports.