Research On Construction Schedule Risk Management Of Power Supply And Distribution Projects Based On MCS-AHP Model

With the increasing pace of urbanisation,the demand for electrical energy in the production activities of the modern Chinese people has shown a gradual increase,with the number of power generation projects and the increase in voltage exceeding historical peaks.However,in recent years,the phenomenon of power construction projects being disturbed by various external environmental influences has become increasingly evident.Not only is it easy to see that the implementation of power engineering projects is lagging,but the scope of disturbance and damage to the project schedule is also becoming more and more extensive,so it is necessary to carry out an in-depth study of progress risk management for power construction projects.In this paper,from the perspective of power supply and distribution engineering:(1)The WBS decomposition method applied to identify the construction schedule risks of power supply and distribution projects,and to summarize the construction schedule risks of power supply and distribution projects,including four stages of construction preparation,civil construction,installation and construction,commissioning and acceptance by the power supply departments,with a total of 19 progress risk factors,and to construct corresponding index systems.(2)Improvement of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)by Monte Carlo simulation method and establishment of construction risk assessment model for power distribution project.Taking Guangdong Province as an example,the construction risk assessment model of the second phase of the supply and distribution guarantee project is established to measure the key factors restricting the project’s progress,and the evaluation index system is compared and analyzed by the traditional stratification analysis method to verify the feasibility of the evaluation model.According to the analysis,the purchase of materials and equipment,production arrival,the installation of,a 10 kv high-voltage distribution cabinet installation,electrical acceptance and single unit commissioning,the installation of a low-voltage distribution cabinet and direct current network,and the basic construction of a power station equipment are the influencing factors.The MCS-AHP model is used to study the construction schedule risk of power supply and distribution engineering,which can effectively reduce the subjectivity and make the calculated weights and the relationship between them more scientific compared with the traditional AHP calculation results.(3)Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the construction schedule risk of the power distribution project,and crystal ball software simulation was used to determine the delay probability and on-time completion probability of the construction schedule risk.The analysis shows that the delay probability of the distribution project is 30.27% and the completion probability is 69.73%,and the construction schedule of the distribution project has some risks.According to the calculation results,corresponding countermeasures are put forward for the key influencing factors.Through the above research,we can have a better understanding of the factors that affect the construction progress of power supply and distribution projects,so as to explore the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent construction progress accidents,reduce the delay of the construction period,reduce the economic losses,and bring some reference value to the construction progress risk management of similar projects.