Generation Planning For New-type Power System Considering Uncertainty And Correlation Of Source And Load

With the double carbon target proposed,building a renewable-dominated power system with new energy as the main source is an important measure to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaking.The new power system has obvious source-load uncertainty in space and time because of the increased proportion of wind power,photovoltaic and other renewable energy in the power side and the coupling of many new types of loads and diversified power-using devices in the load side.A correlation characteristic is also presented between renewable energy and load.Therefore,in the process of planning the renewable-dominated power system,it is necessary to consider the characteristics of strong supply-demand uncertainty and spatio-temporal correlation coupling brought by the high proportion of renewable energy sources on the grid and multiple loads.In this paper,we propose a renewable-dominated power system double-layer planning model that takes into account the supply-demand uncertainty and correlation.Firstly,considering the supply-demand uncertainty,a probabilistic model of wind power,PV and load is established by stochastic method.The corresponding probabilistic models are generated by using different distribution functions,and a typical scenario is generated by using the scenario method according to the probabilistic model.The use of the scenario method incorporates a Latin hypercube sampling algorithm with a K-means clustering algorithm,and the resulting scenarios can be evaluated using indicators.A supply-demand correlation model is proposed by considering the correlation between source and load based on the independent uncertainty of source and load.The kernel density estimation is used to determine the edge distribution function,the specific Copula model used is determined by the correlation coefficient,and the correlation parameters in the selected Copula function are determined by a nonparametric estimation method.To provide a new power system power planningFinally,a renewable-dominated power system double-layer planning model that takes into account source-load uncertainty and correlation is proposed,with the planning investment cost and operating cost as the objective in the upper layer and the new power supply as the decision variable,and the annual operating cost minimization in each scenario as the objective in the lower layer,and a joint distribution function that takes into account source-load correlation is established based on Copula theory and the supply-demand probability distribution model,and the output scenario is applied to the double-layer power supply planning model.The model is solved using the Cplex solver in Matlab and the Big M method with column constraint generation algorithm.Simulations are performed with data from a provincial power grid in the north to verify the necessity of considering supply-demand uncertainty and correlation in the renewable-dominated power system planning and the effectiveness of the proposed method.