Evolution Analysis And Prediction Of Resilience In Different Dimensions Of Air Cargo Network In China

In recent years,despite the repeated impact of the COVID-19 on domestic air transport industry,the cargo market has shown a trend of gradual recovery.Under the background of the network operation mode of domestic aviation,the connection between airports and airlines is increasingly close.Therefore,the impact of emergencies is easier to spread in the network.It is necessary to study the ability of air cargo network to cope with emergencies.Resilience is used to assess the ability of a network to cope with emergencies and recover to normal operating levels.Compared with indicators such as robustness and vulnerability,resilience puts more emphasis on the ability of a network to cope with events,resist attacks and recover performance.This thesis evaluates domestic air cargo network from the perspective of resilience and predicts its resilience in the future.Based on the actual data of the existing aviation network,this thesis firstly constructs domestic air cargo network,analyzes its topological structure characteristics,and analyzes its development process and influencing factors through the evolution of relevant characteristics of China’s air cargo network from 2010 to 2020.Secondly,toughness is defined from the structural dimension,functional dimension and dual dimension combining the above two dimensions,and different quantitative evaluation methods are adopted to evaluate toughness based on different definitions of different dimensions.At the same time,different dimensions and attack-recovery indexes are selected according to different evaluation methods.Through the evaluation of network resilience at different levels,the network resilience of domestic air cargo network from 2010 to 2020 is calculated respectively through curve fitting,and then the evolution process is analyzed.Finally,the BP neural network model is used to predict the resilience of different dimensions of domestic air cargo network in the next ten years based on the historical network resilience data calculated in the previous part.Based on the traditional study of network resilience,this thesis applies the theoretical framework of resilience to aviation network,and reasonably modifies the relevant evaluation methods and indicators according to the actual situation of aviation network.Based on this,relevant development suggestions are put forward to improve the resilience of domestic air cargo network.It provides reference for future resource allocation,site selection of new airport,opening up of new airline or designing and implementing emergency plan.