| Climate change caused by the greenhouse effect is a major problem facing mankind at present.The increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the air is the main cause of the greenhouse effect.To control the concentration of carbon dioxide needs the joint efforts of the whole world.As a major responsible country,our country has strategically put forward the goal of "double carbon".To achieve this goal,we must make all-round efforts in economy,life and other aspects.One of the effective ways is to enhance the carbon sequestration function of forest ecosystem.In this study,the whole forest vegetation system in Shandong Province was taken as the object.The present situation,change trend,driving factors and future potential of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Shandong Province were analyzed.Based on the results of the7 th,8th and 9th forest resources inventory in Shandong Province,the carbon stocks of forest vegetation in Shandong Province were estimated by using IPCC biomass expansion factor method,and the age group,tree species,origin and forest species structure of carbon stocks were analyzed.Combined with the NPP remote sensing data of forest vegetation in Shandong Province,the full diameter carbon sink and its regional distribution were estimated.On this basis,principal component analysis was used to explore the driving factors affecting the change of the full diameter carbon sink of forest vegetation in Shandong Province.Finally,the forest vegetation carbon storage and the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed and fixed in Shandong Province in 2025,2030 and 2060 were predicted respectively from the time dimension,and the forest carbon sink regional development potential evaluation system in Shandong Province was constructed from the forest resource endowment,site conditions,physical space of forest growth and other factors.The carbon sink potential of 16 prefecturelevel cities was evaluated and graded.The main research results are as follows:(1)Carbon storage status of forest vegetation in Shandong Province.Carbon reserves of forest vegetation in Shandong Province were 47.705 million tons,including 34.417 million tons of carbon reserves of arbor forest,10.461 million tons of carbon reserves of shrub economic forest and 322,200 tons of carbon reserves of arbor economic forest.In other forest land types,the carbon reserves of open woodland were 307,100 tons,that of peripheral trees was 13.3285 million tons,and that of loose wood was 1,245,100 tons.The structure of carbon storage age group was young forest(12.5353 million tons)>Aged forest(10.67789 million tons)>Mature forest(5.269,900 tons)>Near mature forest(3.1672 million tons)>Overripe forest(2,765,300 tons).The tree species in Shandong Province is relatively simple,only poplar forest carbon storage accounts for up to 53%.According to the estimation of forest origin,carbon reserves of artificial forest and natural forest are 31.8053million tons and 1.3057 million tons.According to the estimation of different tree species,the carbon storage size was in order of timber forest(17,973,900 tons)>.Shelterbelt(14.5843million tons)>Special forest(1,773,200 tons).(2)Dynamic succession of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Shandong Province.Carbon storage in forest increased from 27.1447 million tons to 37.3782 million tons during 2007-2017,with an annual increase of 1,023,400 tons.From 2007 to 2017,carbon storage of tree economic forest decreased from 9,291,900 tons to 322,200 tons,with a decrease of 8,969,900 tons,while shrub economic forest(special irrigation forest)increased from 1,451,800 tons to 10,461,000 tons,with an increase of 9,900,200 tons.The main reason for the increase or decrease of carbon storage of the two types of economic forest is the adjustment of land classification standards.From 2007 to 2017,carbon storage of young forest increased first and then decreased,while that of other age groups increased continuously.From the perspective of forest species,carbon storage of each forest species showed an increasing trend on the whole.(3)Changes and driving factors of full diameter carbon sink of forest vegetation in Shandong Province.In the 16 prefecture-level cities of Shandong Province,the average annual net carbon sequestration of forest vegetation showed an increasing trend,and the areas with poor forest resource endowment in the early stage had an obvious increase in the average annual net carbon sequestration.The average annual net carbon sequestration of woodland vegetation was higher in eastern Shandong,followed by middle Shandong and lower in southwest Shandong,and the distribution pattern of the province was higher in southeast than in northwest.The top five factors that are most sensitive to NPP of forest vegetation are agricultural output value,gross output value of primary industry,gross output value of secondary industry,per capita GDP,and public budget revenue,indicating that agricultural and forestry development in Shandong province has a relationship of mutual promotion of agriculture and forestry,and the relevant economic basis is an important guarantee for the development of forestry and the improvement of forestry carbon sink.(4)Forest carbon sink potential in Shandong Province.Prediction.In 2025,2030 and2060,the carbon reserves of forest vegetation(arbor forest)in Shandong Province are36.1739 million tons,38.1888 million tons and 52.8667 million tons,respectively.From the perspective of regional distribution,the forest carbon sink potential of 16 prefectural cities in Shandong Province can be divided into five gradients.The first gradient is Linyi,Yantai and Jinan,and the second gradient is Weifang,Zibo,Dezhou,Tai ’an,Jining and Qingdao.The third gradient is Binzhou and Heze.The fourth gradient is Weihai,Rizhao,Liaocheng,the fifth gradient is Zaozhuang,Dongying;The main factors affecting the gradient division are the area of suitable forest land,open forest land and unformed forest land and the site condition of forest land. |
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