| In recent years,with the transformation of China’s economic development mode and the proposed strategic goal of "carbon peaking,carbon neutral",the benefits of "forest carbon sinks" have been further expanded.Especially in market economy,accounting for the carbon sink value of forest ecosystem has become increasingly important in projects such as carbon sink trading and ecological compensation.Therefore,a scientific evaluation of the carbon sequestration value of forest ecosystems and a reasonable prediction of the carbon sequestration potential of the forest ecosystem will not only provide data support for the evaluation of carbon sequestration project,but also provide a scientific basis for the development and implementation of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutral forestry sustainable development goals.As a major forestry province with abundant forest resources,Jiangxi Province has an important role to play in maintaining the balance of its ecological environment through the carbon sink function of forests.Therefore,To this end,this paper uses the data from the 6th to the 9th national forest inventory as the basis,and classifies the forest resources in Jiangxi province into four major types: standing trees,economic forests,bamboo forests and shrub forests,among which standing trees are divided into two types of forest resources,namely,tree forests and four-sided trees,scattered trees and open woodlands.Then,the carbon asset value and carbon service value of forest ecosystems in Jiangxi Province from 1999 to 2018 were estimated from the perspectives of "storage" and "flow" by referring to the SEEA(System of Integrated Environmental-Economic Accounting)on the measurement of resources and environment.The carbon asset values and carbon service values of forest ecosystems in Jiangxi Province from 1999 to 2018 were estimated and their trends were analyzed.Among them,different methods were used for different types of forest resources in order to improve the accuracy of the calculation of the physical quantity of carbon resources in forest ecosystems.In calculating the value of carbon resources,the carbon price was first determined using the transcendental log production function,and then the value of carbon resources was determined by combining the physical quantity of carbon resources.Finally,on the basis of the above carbon value calculation,this paper then used a gray-Markov prediction model to make a reasonable prediction of the forest carbon sequestration potential in Jiangxi Province from 2019 — 2033 using carbon stock as an indicator.The main results are as follows:(1)During 1999 — 2018,the carbon asset value and carbon service value of forest ecosystems in Jiangxi Province increased tenfold,with the carbon asset value of 148.344 billion yuan and the carbon service value of 5.703 billion yuan in 2018.Among them,the carbon value of live trees accounts for about 92% of the total carbon value of forests.(2)The carbon stock of middle and young forests accounts for about 75% of the carbon stock of arboreal forests.In addition,the serious natural disasters in Jiangxi Province in 2008 made the total carbon service of the province’s forests lower than that of other years.(3)In 2023,2028,and 2033,the predicted values of the physical volume of total forest carbon assets are 843 million t,975 million t,and 1,072 million t,respectively,which are15.80%,34.02%,and 47.33% higher compared to the physical volume of carbon assets of forest ecosystems in this province in 2018.Based on the above research results,this paper discusses three aspects,namely,standardizing carbon sink accounting methods,strengthening technical support for carbon sink monitoring and improving forest management,with a view to providing a basis for consolidating and improving forest carbon sink capacity,formulating forestry plans to cope with climate change and carbon neutrality,and providing data support for the province to coordinate the marketization of carbon sink benefits and ecological compensation mechanism reform in the region. |
