| China has the world’s largest migrant relocation programs,which aims to relocate people located in ecologically fragile areas,important ecological function areas and uninhabitable areas to other towns or regions with relatively better development conditions,in order to solve the problems of poverty,natural disasters and ecological degradation.However,migrant relocation(MR)will also inevitably affect the sustainable use of cropland within the region,which is not conducive to maintaining the sustainable development of rural areas and national food security.At present,there is no consensus in the academic community on whether MR will aggravate or alleviate cropland abandonment(CA).Therefore,this study takes Pingli County as an example to explore and analyze the effect of MR on CA,with a view to improving migrant relocation policies and achieving multi-objective synergy in social governance.This study follows the process of“theoretical analysis-characteristic analysis-impact analysis-policy recommendation”.First,based on a review of the literature on MR and CA,we define the core concepts and connotations of MR and CA in this study.Second,based on Arc GIS10.8 software platform,we analyzed the characteristics of MR and CA in the study area by using spatial-temporal data analysis method.Third,a multiscale geographic weighted regression model was constructed to explore and analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the effect of MR on CA.Fourth,a threshold regression model was constructed to explore and analyze the nonlinear effects of MR on CA.Finally,based on the above basis,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.Spatial-temporal data analysis method shows that the total scale of relocation program in Pingli County is 11.35 km~2,and the administrative villages with larger scale of relocation are mainly concentrated in the northern and southern areas,and mainly in the non-urban and non-township center villages.The total scale of resettlement program is 5.96 km~2,mainly concentrated in the urban and township center villages.MR can be divided into three types:out-migration type,in-migration type and vacant.Among them,the out-migration type accounts for 67.98%and is the main type,which is in line with the general characteristics of MR,i.e.,to achieve the outward migration of population.The in-migration type villages are generally concentrated in and around the central villages of urban and townships,while the distribution of out-migration type villages is relatively scattered,mainly in the northern areas.In addition,the maximum value of MR is 1.097%and the minimum value is-17.939%.The scale of abandoned cropland in Pingli County was 35.91 km~2,and all 178 administrative villages had different degrees of abandoned cropland,ranging from 864.85 m~2 to 2.07 km~2.Among them,the total scale of CA in the out-migration type villages was 25.43 km~2,which was about 2.43 times of the scale of abandonment in the in-migration type villages,which was10.48 km~2.The administrative villages with high and medium scales of CA are mainly distributed in the northern region,mainly in the out-migration type villages.The administrative villages with low scales of CA are relatively evenly distributed in the county,concentrated in the in-migration type villages.Cropland abandoned to forest area of 35.55 km~2,accounting for 99.00%of the total size of CA,as the main abandonment type,concentrated in the northern region of the out-migration type villages.The area of abandoned to grassland is0.35 km~2 and the area of abandoned to shrub is 0.01 km~2,which are more common in the in-migration type villages.The results of the multiple linear regression model confirmed that MR significantly affects CA,while the results of the multiscale geographic weighted regression model further confirmed that this effect exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity:the regression coefficient of MR shows an increasing trend from southeast to northwest of Pingli County,and the significance level is closer to 1%the closer to the northern area.The spatial distribution of this coefficient is also consistent with the spatial and temporal characteristics of MR and CA in Pingli County.In addition,the regression coefficients of slope,elevation,precipitation,per capita cropland resources,rural road density and MR engineering measures all showed significant spatial heterogeneity.The regression results of the threshold model showed that the effect of MR on CA showed a non-linear characteristic.The specific threshold value is 0.258%.When MR≤0 or MR>0.258%,MR has a significant inhibitory effect on CA;while when 0<MR≤0.258%,MR promotes the occurrence of CA.Therefore,the conclusion of existing studies that there is a linear relationship between MR and CA is biased.Based on the above findings,this study concludes that:first,it is essential to scientifically determine the location of resettlement sites,especially the reasonable commuting distance-the distance from the cropland to the homestead.And under the premise of satisfying the policy requirements,it is also possible to appropriately increase the proportion of migrants’independent decentralized resettlement.Second,in the implementation of the subsequent migrant relocation policy,policy-makers should consider the scale of relocation and resettlement in the region in order to avoid the MR leading to CA.Specifically for this study,this evasive relocation range is 0-0.258%.Finally,it is necessary to speed up land titling and foster a standardized and institutionalized land transfer market.At the same time,mountain agriculture should be allowed to develop some non-food industries,which will help improve the economic viability of cropland. |
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