Correlation Between Economic Development Level And Pulmonary Tuberculosis Registered Incidence In Shandong,China

Objective:By exploring the association between the level of economic development in Shandong Province and the registered incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB),we can provide more research basis for the government to prevent and control tuberculosis.Method:By analyzing panel data,constructing the fixed effect model and threshold regression model(TRM),we studied the correlation between different economic factors and PTB registration incidence in 17 cities in Shandong Province,China,from 2006 to 2017.And we analyzed and compared the differences in the PTB registered incidence among regions at different levels of economic development.Result:Among the economic factors studied,population density,per capita medical financial expenditure,rural per capita annual income,urban per capita disposable income,per capita savings,per capita GDP and urban engel’s coefficient are closely related to the PTB registered incidence.Urban engel’s coefficient(regression coefficient,0.1908406;P>|t|,0.056),population density(regression coefficient,0.0983965;P>|t|,0.047)and per capita medical financial expenditure(regression coefficient,-0.0314462;P>|t|,0.000.)are the three indicators with the strongest correlation with PTB registered incidence.In the three stages of per capita savings(<9,772.8086 yuan,9,772.8086-33,835.5391 yuan,>33,835.5391 yuan),rural per capita income always has a significant negative impact on the PTB registered incidence(The regression coefficients are-0.0015682,-0.0028132 and-0.0022253 respectively.P>|t| is 0.007,0.000 and 0.000 respectively).At the same time,the impact of rural per capita annual income on incidence has significant phased differences.Overall,PTB registered incidence in various regions has shown a downward trend except for small fluctuations,and the overall incidence in areas with better economic development is lower than that in areas with poor economic development,but this gap is gradually decreasing and the incidence in various regions is gradually stabilizing.In cities with good economies,PTB registered incidence was 38.30%in 2006 and dropped to 25.10%by 2017.In cities with moderate economies,PTB registered incidence peaked in 2008 at 43.10%and dropped to 27.1%by 2017.In poorer cities,PTB registered incidence peaked in 2008 at 56.30%and dropped to 28.9%in 2017.Conclusion:We found that population density,per capita medical expenditure,rural per capita annual income,urban per capita disposable income and per capita savings,per capita GDP and urban engel’s coefficient are closely related to the PTB registered incidence.In the case of per capita savings level,the negative impact of rural per capita annual income on the PTB registered incidence has a significant stage difference,and increasing rural income has become the focus of tuberculosis(TB)prevention and control.Remarkable achievements have been made in the prevention and control of TB in Shandong Province.The overall PTB registered incidence has shown a downward trend and the gap in PTB incidence among regions with different economic levels is gradually decreasing,and the incidence in various regions tends to be stable.In order to further reduce the TB incidence,in addition to timely and accurate diagnosis and treatment,relevant departments should formulate a more complete medical system and medical insurance policies,and increase investment in health care.