Establishment And Validation Of Tumor Survival Prediction Model In Different Parts Of Pancreatic Head Based On SEER Database

Objective:Based on the SEER database,this study aims to explore the factors that affect the survival and prognosis of tumors in different parts of the pancreatic head,and to construct a nomogram based on the relevant influencing factors,and then internally verify the nomogram model.The independent predictor of pancreatic cancer can be targeted for preventing,and providing a theoretical basis for clinical treatment of them.Methods:A total of 8973 cases of clinical data from 2010 to 2015 were screened through the SEER database.Using univariate COX and multivariate COX regression analysis,the independent prognostic factors affecting the survival and prognosis of pancreatic head cancer were screened,and a nomogram was formed.Then the C-index、ROC and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the nomogram.Results:COX univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that age,degree of differentiation,TN staging,tumor diameter,whether radiotherapy and chemotherapy,the number of lymph node metastasis,and tumor location(pancreatic head,distal bile duct)were independent prognostic factors affecting the survival and prognosis of tumors in the pancreatic head.factor(P<0.05).In the constructed prediction model:the C-index of the half-year,1-year,and 2-year survival rates of the modeling group were 0.681,0.669,and 0.669,respectively;the C-index of the validation cohort was:0.683,0.666,0.663.The areas under the ROC curve of the half-year,1-year,and2-year survival rates of the modeling group were 0.722,0.700,and 0.694,respectively;the areas under the ROC curve of the half-year,1-year,and 2-year survival rates of the validation group were 0.732,0.710,and 0.686,respectively.It reflects the good discrimination of the model.The calibration curves show good agreement between the observed results and the model predictions.Conclusions:Gender,age,TN stage,degree of differentiation,tumor diameter,radiotherapy and chemotherapy,number of lymph node metastases,and tumor location(pancreatic head,distal cholangiocarcinoma)are independent prognostic factors for survival in patients with pancreatic head tumors;the drawn pancreatic head area The survival prediction model of tumor patients helps us to individually predict the survival probability of pancreatic head tumor patients;internal verification suggests that the model has a relatively reliable degree of discrimination and fit.