Research On The Allocation Of Epidemic Emergency Resources Considering Fairness

In the event of an epidemic,forecasting the emergency dynamics and needs in time,and research the appropriate emergency resource allocation strategies is the key to carry out emergency rescue work.Since the outbreak of COVID-19,the emergency management systems of all countries have encountered problems such as delayed treatment of infected patients to varying degrees and unreasonable allocation of emergency resources.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the allocation capacity of emergency resources under major outbreaks,and to study the optimization of emergency resource allocation from the aspects of scarcity and fairness of allocation process.This study was carried out against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic and focused on makeshift hospitals as an emergency resource.We construct the optimal allocation of makeshift hospitals in major outbreaks into a portfolio optimization model of resource allocation.Based on the intermediate variable,the number of mild infected patients that can be accepted,describe the interaction and coupling between emergency resource allocation and epidemic spread behavior.Furthermore,the fairness function considering the psychological comparison and the fairness perception satisfaction was introduced to describe the degree of lack of fairness perception and the fairness satisfaction of the people in the epidemic area respectively,and then the optimal capacity allocation model of makeshift hospitals considering the fairness comparison and the fairness perception satisfaction in major outbreaks was established.Based on the above model,this paper reconstructed the construction scenario of Wuhan Makeshift hospital,and solved the model by using the immune optimization algorithm and NSGA-II algorithm.Finally,we obtained the optimal allocation scheme of emergency resources under various circumstances.Through research,this paper finds that:(1)The model designed in this paper can realize the effective scenario reconstruction of the construction process of Wuhan makeshift hospitals.The configuration results of makeshift hospitals and the prediction results of the cumulative number of infections given by the model are consistent with the actual situation.(2)After taking into account the fairness factor,the waiting time difference for the admission rate of patients in the three regions of Wuhan to reach 100% was relatively smaller.The research results not only met the national treatment requirements of all receivables,but also took into account the requirements of patients’ psychological comparison and perceived fairness satisfaction.(3)Before and after considering fairness,the distribution pattern of emergency budget will not change.The allocation of the emergency budget is mainly used for variable costs,that is,the treatment of patients,accounting for 82% to 90%,while the fixed costs account for 10% to18%.The research conclusions can effectively guide the practice of emergency budget allocation.(4)There is a threshold phenomenon in the input of the emergency budget,that is,when the total amount of the emergency budget exceeds a certain threshold,the increased input cannot bring about a further decline in the corresponding number of infected persons,nor can it further compress the number of untreated infected persons,that is,the input of the emergency budget has a similar effect of diminishing marginal utility.(5)The initial setting time of makeshift hospitals has an important influence on the epidemic evolution.With the delay of the initial setting time,the cumulative number of infected people increased rapidly,and people’s sense of fairness became more serious,and their sense of fairness satisfaction decreased more sharply.Therefore,makeshift hospitals should be set up as early as possible in the emergency response to the epidemic.