| Objective:To understand the epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan province from 2010 to 2020,and explore the causes of change.To estimate the excess incidence of HFMD in Hunan province in recent ten years,providing a theoretical basis for relevant departments to formulate more long-term policies and measures;The indirect economic burden of HFMD was studied to provide reference for the optimization and adjustment of health economic policies in the future.Methods:1.Epidemiological characteristics of Hand,foot and mouth disease:The incidence data of HFMD in hunan province were obtained from the surveillance system of Chinese center for disease control and prevention.The annual and monthly incidence data of HFMD in 14 cities and states in hunan province from 2010 to 2020 were collated by using Excel2010.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the distribution of HFMD in Hunan province from 2010 to 2020.2.Study on the excess incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease:The Serfling regression model was used to determine the prevalence of HFMD and estimate the excess incidence of HFMD in Hunan province from 2010 to 2020.3.According to the existing data,indirect economic burden was defined as hospitalization and care to patients or relatives cause the economic loss,indirect economic burden was the product of average wages and escort delays days.Results:1.Epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease1.1 The general situation:From January 2010 to December 2020,a total of 1,574,929 HFMD cases were reported in Hunan Province,with an average annual incidence of 212.13/100,000.There were 10,810 severe cases and 369 deaths,with showing the characteristics of high incidence in every other year.1.2 Temporal distribution:From 2010 to 2020,cases of HFMD in Hunan province were reported every month.The incidence showed obvious seasonality,and the incidence trend showed a bipeak distribution.The incidence peak mainly appeared from March to June,followed by a second small incidence peak from September to November.1.3 Population distribution:The incidence age of HFMD cases in Hunan province from 2010 to 2020 was mainly in 0-5 years old with accounting for 95.95%(1,511,075/1,574,929).There were 952,172 male and 622,757 female HFMD cases with accounting for 60.46%(952,172/1,574,929)and 39.54%(622,757/1,574,929),respectively.The male-female sex ratio was 1.53:1.HFMD cases were mainly among scattered children and children in nurseries with accounting for97.15%(1,530,002/1,574,929).1.4 Regional distribution:From October 2010 to 2020,there were monthly cases reported in 14 cities and states of Hunan Province,with a total of 1,574,929 cases reported,and the average annual incidence was212.13/100,000.Changsha had the highest cases(301,253)and the highest annual incidence(368.31/100,000 cases).The average annual incidence was higher in the central eastern and northwestern regions(232.51/100,000 to 368.31/100,000).1.5 Etiological analysis:From 2010 to 2020,a total of 90,762HFMD cases were detected in the laboratories of Hunan Provincial and municipal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,and 54,935HFMD positive samples were detected,with a positive rate of 60.53%.2.Excess number of hand,foot and mouth disease2.1 Model fitting:After 5 Serfling regression,the fourth Serfling regression model was chosen(F=25.55,R~2=0.843,P<0.05),the model was Yt=1651.028-115.559t+398.750m-2.682Sin(2πt/12)-198.827Cos(2πt/12),and part of(-115.559t+398.750m)showed the long term trend,and part of(-2.682sin(2πt/12)-198.827cos(2πt/12))represents the periodicity of the epidemic.2.2 Epidemic period and excess number:There were 17 months of HFMD epidemic in Hunan province from 2010 to 2020 with accounting for 12.88%(17/132)of all months.The total number of excess cases was27,444,accounting for 1.74%(27,444/1,574,929).3.Indirect economic burden of Hand,foot and mouth disease3.1 Hospital days:In 2014,there were the most common cases(210,860)and the longest hospital stay(35,119 days).In 2012,there were the most severe cases(3,131)and the longest hospital stay(15,177 days).3.2 Indirect economic burden:The indirect economic burden of HFMD cases in Hunan province from 2010 to 2020 was as follows:The total indirect economic burden of HFMD cases was 42.4034 million yuan,of which the indirect economic burden of ordinary cases was 35.8968million yuan,and that of severe cases was 6.5066 million yuan.3.3 Per indirect economic burden:In 2019 and 2020,the average indirect economic burden of normal cases were 997.64 yuan and 1,040.16yuan,respectively.In 2019 and 2020,the average indirect economic burden of severe cases were 1,343.76 yuan and 1,408.55 yuan,respectively.Conclusion:1.HFMD occurs highly every other year in Hunan province,showing the characteristics of bimodal,and the infection people is mostly among scattered children under 5 years old.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of scattered children under 5 years old in even years with peak incidence.Middle eastern and northwestern area in Hunan province are in high risk,and prevention and control efforts should be strengthened.The dominant pathogens of HFMD were different in different years in Hunan Province,and continuous etiological surveillance should be strengthened.2.In addition to the traditional epidemic season,the prevention and control of HFMD should also be emphasized in the winter and spring seasons.3.The total indirect economic burden of HFMD in Hunan province was higher in other year,so prevention and control measures in different years should be emphasized. |
PDF Full Text Request