The Evolution Of Group Opinion Based On User Psychology

The Internet is a freer and more open environment for people to obtain information and express their opinions.Therefore,how to predict and manage public opinion and to prevent its negative threat to social security has become an emerging research topic.This thesis mainly presents that people play a core role in public opinion events,so we analyze individual opinion formation under different psychological factors and builds the psychological opinion evolution models from corresponding microscopic and macroscopical psychological level.Next,the thesis explores the opinion formation mechanism from the psychological perspective by simulation,which not only quantitatively analyzes opinion formation under psychological factors,but also puts forward corresponding management suggestions from a psychological level.Our research can be divided into micro and macro psychological level.For the micro level,it selects the sleeper effect and cognitive dissonance effect and extracts the core variables such as discount threshold and social threshold to improve the original model.Through the simulation,it is found that the smaller the discount threshold is,the more easily the individuals are persuaded by doubtful opinions.In addition,the dynamic network established through cognitive dissonance can promote opinion convergence,which is also consistent with the fact that similar opinions in a social network can quickly concentrate.For the macro level,it mainly discusses the individual’s trust threshold to external public persons and constructs a two-stage opinion evolution model.Through simulations and data verification,the targeted opinions are given from the perspectives of information quality for public person,response time and response frequency.Finally,based on the above research results,this paper proposes governance measures for public opinion for public opinion supervision departments from user psychology.