Demand For Children's Pension, Social Pension And Commercial Pension Insuranc

China is in a critical stage of social and economic transformation and population structure change.The "family planning" policy implemented in order to effectively control the rapid population growth has not only greatly reduced the birth rate,but also inevitably buried the danger that the population age structure will rapidly age in the future.At present,the way of old-age care for Chinese residents mainly rely on family pension and social pension.The concept of “raising children for old age” is widespread in China,but with social progress and the improvement of the basic old-age security system,residents’ reliance on social old-age security has also gradually increased.However,with the decline of total fertility rate,the supply of family pension will decrease in the future,leading to the increasing demand social pension which is under pressure.Meanwhile,people are paying more attention to solve their own pension problems,that is,through the third pillar to achieve self-pension or meet higher pension needs.It is urgent to strengthen the third pillar commercial pension insurance in the situation of insufficient supply of family pension and great pressure on social pension.The "14th Five-Year Plan" pointed out that it is essential to implement the strategy to respond to population aging,improve the old-age insurance system,develop a multilevel and multi-pillar old-age insurance system,increase the coverage rate of enterprise annuity,and develop the third pillar pension insurance.Due to the similarity of family pension,social pension and commercial pension in the function of old age risk protection,there may be a certain correlation among them.Therefore,we hope to understand the relationship between the number of children born by residents,whether they participate in social pension and their commercial pension insurance participation.Further,through empirical analysis,we can see the differences between urban and rural areas,between different genders and between groups with different income levels.So,we study the influence of the number of children and social pension participation in commercial pension insurance.First of all,we theoretically analyze that the old-age care is an important reason for fertility,and the similarity in function may lead to the crowding out of residents’ demand for commercial pension insurance by bearing children and participating in social pension insurance.On this basis,we constructs a two-stage decision model.Considering the economic motivation of having children,it is found that residents with more children and those who participate in basic old-age insurance are less likely to choose commercial pension insurance.Secondly,we use the cross-section data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in2018 to estimate the influence of the number of children and social pension insurance on residents’ needs for commercial pension insurance by Probit model and instrumental variable method.The results show: firstly,the number of children has a significant negative impact on residents’ demand for commercial pension insurance,and residents with more children have a lower probability of participating in commercial pension insurance,which indicates that children still have a strong family pension function.Secondly,social pension insurance has a crowding out effect on residents’ participation in commercial pension insurance,which indicates that the substitution effect of social pension insurance in China is still dominant.Further,we divided the whole sample into three groups based on gender,urban or rural areas and household income to analyze the differences reflected by different characteristic groups in the impact of the number of children and social pension insurance on residents’ willingness to participate in commercial pension insurance.The main conclusions are as follows: firstly,compared with the male group,the crowding-out effect of kids and social pension participation of female are more obvious,and the female group has a stronger dependence on the children and social pension insurance.Secondly,having more children and participating in social pension insurance significantly reduced the probability of residents in countryside participating in commercial pension insurance,but the effect was not significant in urban areas.Thirdly,having more children mainly restrains the demand for commercial pension insurance in low-income and middle-income families.As the raising of household income,the amount of births has less and less negative impact on the participation of commercial pension insurance.From a micro perspective,our study deeply explores the relationship between the number of children,whether they participate in social pension insurance and the demand for commercial pension insurance,which is essential for insurance industry regulatory authorities to formulate policies related to commercial pension insurance and carry out effective market supervision.At the same time,it also gives some enlightenment to insurance companies in development and management of commercial pension insurance products.