Research On Holmes’s "Theory Of Legal Prediction"

Under the continuous influence of "science",analytical jurisprudence,and pragmatism philosophy in the 19th century,Holmes’ s "legal prediction theory" took shape and gradually improved.From 1880 to 1881,Holmes was invited to teach a course in "Common Law" at Lowell College,which was later compiled into his masterpiece,"Common Law.".In this book,Holmes proposed the famous theory of legal experience that "the life of law does not lie in logic,but in experience" and the theory of legal prediction that "law is about what the court will do" in response to the tendency of legal formalism.The speech at the inauguration ceremony of the new hall of the Boston University School of Law in 1897 was organized into "The Road to Law",emphasizing once again that "the purpose of studying law is to foresee,that is,to foresee the reaction of public power through the courts.".Holmes takes the perspective of "bad guys" as the starting point,and based on his precise definition of legal concepts such as law,morality,and responsibility,he penetrates "logic","experience","history",and "prediction" into "legal prediction theory",providing a new interpretation of "what is law"."Legal Prediction Theory" can be said to be a senior professional lawyer’s suggestion on legal profession and legal education to law school students,and provides specific operating methods.Firstly,using jurisprudence to follow the existing legal rule system,summarize the basic principles of abstraction.Secondly,through historical research,we can discover the context of the evolution of legal rules to date,linking law with history and philosophy.Finally,comprehensively consider various purposes,reasons,and costs,with rational thinking as the goal,and make "legal prediction theory" a method of education."The theory of legal prediction" has promoted the development of realistic jurisprudence and has had a profound impact on legal education in the United States.This article will analyze the ideological origin,definition distinction,internal logic,value significance,and other aspects of Holmes’ "legal prediction theory",and will penetrate Holmes’ overall theory of "legal prediction theory" to explore the wisdom of common law and unique thinking methods contained therein.It cannot be denied that this theory is indeed flawed,but it still has reference value and practical significance for today’s legal research and development.