| The SNC data shows that China’s elderly population accounts for 13.5%,while the per capita number of families is 2.62,so we are facing the challenge of intensified aging and declining willingness to have children.With the continuous improvement of the old-age insurance system and the increase in the cost of housing and childcare,will people reduce their willingness to have children? And there are large differences between different pension insurances,is there a difference in the impact of different pension insurances on fertility intentions? In addition,there is a gap between the number they born and the number they want.So can pension insurance explain this gap? At this stage,researches on the relationship between endowment insurance and fertility willingness focus mostly on the analysis of basic endowment insurance,and there is less researches on the impact of different types of endowment insurance on fertility.Moreover,researches on fertility intention focus on the ideal number of births,and researches about the actual fertility decision-making involves less.In this paper,we select CLDS data in 2016 and use poisson,logit,PSM and instrumental variable methods to explore the influence of endowment insurance on fertility intentions.It is found that the more residents participate in the pension insurance,the greater the decline in fertility willingness,and the basic pension insurance has a stronger crowding out effect on the willingness to have boys.Compared with the endowment insurance of urban and rural residents,the endowment insurance of urban workers has a stronger crowding out effect on the total fertility and the desire to have a boy.A further classification study found that the crowding-out effect of endowment insurance on childbearing willingness was larger in eastern areas and cities,and smaller in central and rural areas.The results of the analysis of the regulatory effect and the difference in fertility behavior show that education,income,etc.can alleviate the crowding out effect of pension insurance,and pension insurance can explain the difference in fertility behavior to some extent.This suggests that pension insurance has a certain impact effect on the traditional concept of "raising children and preventing the elderly",but there is an imbalance. |
