Research On The Impact Of National Poor Counties Policy On The Migrant Workers’ Willingness To Return Their Home

Since the reform and opening up in 1978,China has made great achievements in solving the poverty problem.According to the poverty line in 2010,the poverty incidence rate in rural areas in 1978 was 97.5%,but at the end of 2019,the poverty incidence rate was only 0.6%.The year 2020 is a decisive year for we succeeded in delivering the Two Assurance and Three Guarantees.With the joint efforts of the people of the whole country,all 98.99 million rural poor people in China have been lifted out of poverty,and all impoverished counties have been lifted out of poverty,and the problem of absolute poverty has been solved.In the process of solving the poverty problem,China has adopted a number of poverty alleviation policies since the reform and opening up,and the national poor counties policy,as one of the basic policies,has played an extremely important role.Therefore,this paper synthesizes the lists of three national poor counties policy in 1994,2001 and 2011,and uses the CLDS2014 database to examine the impact of the establishment of national poor counties on the willingness of migrants to return home.The types of people returning home can be divided into two categories: active return and passive return.Active return refers to the individuals returning to their hometown voluntarily,while passive return refers to individuals who passively return to their hometown because they cannot stay in other places.After the establishment of national poor counties,a series of specific poverty alleviation measures will greatly improve the local economic development,which may attract migrants to return home voluntarily.The existing literature mainly focuses on the micro-factors that affect the decision-making of migrants to return home,such as individual characteristics including gender,age,education level,and family factors including family size,spouse status,and children’s education.Macro factors,such as the level of economic development,policies and systems,etc.are less investigated.In addition,the relevant research on the national poor counties policy in the existing literature mainly focuses on the delineation standards of national poor counties and the impact on regional macroeconomics such as regional development and per capita income level.Considering the relevant impact of the policy on the individual level is less.Therefore,this article will take this as an entry point to examine whether the adjustment of the national poor counties will affect the decision-making of migrants to return home in 1994-2014.This paper first analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of the establishment of national poor counties on the willingness of migrants to return home.The single industrial structure,lack of capital,and insufficient investment in infrastructure are the reasons for the low level of development in impoverished counties.The national poor counties will be supported by external government funds and preferential policies.External capital investment includes special financial support funds and poverty alleviation discount loans,and preferential policies include tax relief,infrastructure investment,and economic development preferential policies.With the support of these policies,on the one hand,capital investment in poor areas can be increased,and the investment environment in poor areas can be improved;on the other hand,measures including infrastructure investment and industrial poverty alleviation,can improve the construction level of infrastructure such as road traffic and production facilities in impoverished counties.When the level of industrial structure,level of financial development,and infrastructure in impoverished areas are improved,this will lead to the development of local industries,increase agricultural productivity,increase employment in impoverished areas,and increase economic opportunities for local residents,thereby increasing the possibility of individuals returning home.Afterwards,based on the changes in the list of three national poor counties this paper uses the CLDS 2014 database to accurately identify the impact of the establishment of national poor counties on the willingness of migrants to return home,and analyzed the specific heterogeneity and mechanism of the policy.The empirical research finds that:First,the establishment of national poor counties can significantly increase the willingness of migrants to return home.Comprehensively considering the impact of the three national poor counties lists in 1994,2001 and 2011,founding that no matter what year’s national poor counties policy is adopted,the floating population whose household registration is in national poor counties has a significantly higher willingness to return to their hometown than those whose household registration is in non-poor counties.In addition,the promotion effect of this policy on the willingness of migrants to return home is more obvious for individuals who have recently gone out,younger age groups,males,lower education levels,and individuals in the central region.Second,individual characteristics including gender,education level,age,political status,will also affect the willingness of migrants to return home.Specifically,men are more willing to return home than women;the effect of age on the willingness of migrants to return to their hometown is positive U-shaped: when the age is lower,the willingness of the floating population to return to the hometown decreases with the increase of age,and after reaching the critical value of 35 years old,the willingness of the floating population to return to the hometown increases with the increase of age;the relationship between the educational level and the willingness of the floating population to return to the hometown is negatively correlated.Third,the level of regional financial development,the level of investment in fixed assets,the income of residents,and the industrial structure are the main mechanisms by which policies in poor counties affect the willingness of migrants to return home.The establishment of national poor counties has improved the level of financial development,investment in fixed assets,residents’ income and industrial structure,creating more suitable jobs,thereby increasing the willingness of the floating population to return home.Finally,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from three aspects: ensuring the continuity of policies in national poor counties,carrying out targeted poverty alleviation measures according to local conditions,and carrying out multi-level poverty alleviation support policies.The findings of this paper also enrich the existing literature research on national poor counties policy.